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Mixture Models of Choice Under Risk

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  • Anna Conte
  • John D Hey
  • Peter G Moffatt

Abstract

This paper is concerned with estimating preference functionals for choice under risk from the choice behaviour of individuals. We start from the observation that there is heterogeneity in behaviour between individuals and within individuals. By ‘heterogeneity between individuals’ we mean that people are different, not only in terms of which type of preference functional that they have, but also in terms of their parameters for these functionals. By ‘heterogeneity within individuals’ we mean that behaviour may be different even by the same individual for the same choice problem. Given the heterogeneity between individuals, the assumption of a ‘representative agent’ preference functional to represent the preference functional of all individuals may well lead to biased estimates. Given the heterogeneity within individuals, we should think carefully about the source of this heterogeneity and model it appropriately, for otherwise we get biased estimates. We propose solutions to both of these problems, concentrating particularly, but not exclusively, on using a Mixture Model to capture the heterogeneity of preference functionals across individuals.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of York in its series Discussion Papers with number 07/06.

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Date of creation: Apr 2007
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Handle: RePEc:yor:yorken:07/06

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Web page: http://www.york.ac.uk/economics/
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Keywords: errors; expected utility theory; experimental economics; maximum simulated likelihood; mixture models; preference functionals; risky choice; rank dependent expected utility theory; unobserved heterogeneity;

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References

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  1. Peter Moffatt & Simon Peters, 2001. "Testing for the Presence of a Tremble in Economic Experiments," Experimental Economics, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 221-228, December.
  2. John Hey, 2001. "Does Repetition Improve Consistency?," Experimental Economics, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 5-54, June.
  3. Peter P. Wakker, 2008. "Explaining the characteristics of the power (CRRA) utility family," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(12), pages 1329-1344.
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  5. Glenn Harrison & E. Rutström, 2009. "Expected utility theory and prospect theory: one wedding and a decent funeral," Experimental Economics, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 133-158, June.
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  13. Loomes, Graham & Moffatt, Peter G & Sugden, Robert, 2002. " A Microeconometric Test of Alternative Stochastic Theories of Risky Choice," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 103-30, March.
  14. Nathaniel T Wilcox, 2006. "Theories of Learning in Games and Heterogeneity Bias," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(5), pages 1271-1292, 09.
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  20. Hey, John D & Orme, Chris, 1994. "Investigating Generalizations of Expected Utility Theory Using Experimental Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1291-1326, November.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Andre Palma & Moshe Ben-Akiva & David Brownstone & Charles Holt & Thierry Magnac & Daniel McFadden & Peter Moffatt & Nathalie Picard & Kenneth Train & Peter Wakker & Joan Walker, 2008. "Risk, uncertainty and discrete choice models," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 269-285, December.
    • André de Palma & Moshe Ben-Akiva & David Brownstone & Charles Holt & Thierry Magnac & Daniel McFadden & Peter Moffatt & Nathalie Picard & Kenneth Train & Peter Wakker & Joan Walker, 2008. "Risk, Uncertainty and Discrete Choice Models," THEMA Working Papers 2008-02, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
  2. Aurélien Baillon & Han Bleichrodt & Umut Keskin & Olivier L'Haridon & Author-Name: Chen Li, 2013. "Learning under ambiguity: An experiment using initial public offerings on a stock market," Economics Working Paper Archive (University of Rennes 1 & University of Caen) 201331, Center for Research in Economics and Management (CREM), University of Rennes 1, University of Caen and CNRS.
  3. Francisco Galarza, 2009. "Choices under risk in rural peru," Artefactual Field Experiments 00047, The Field Experiments Website.
  4. Amrei M. Lahno & Marta Serra-Garcia, 2012. "Peer Effects in Risk Taking," CESifo Working Paper Series 4057, CESifo Group Munich.
  5. Helga Fehr-Duda & Adrian Bruhin & Thomas Epper & Renate Schubert, 2010. "Rationality on the rise: Why relative risk aversion increases with stake size," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 40(2), pages 147-180, April.
  6. Ana Conte & John D. Hey, 2011. "Assessing Multiple Prior Models of Behaviour under Ambiguity," Jena Economic Research Papers 2011-068, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena, Max-Planck-Institute of Economics.
  7. Gaudecker, H.M. von & Soest, A.H.O. van & Wengstrom, E., 2009. "Heterogeneity in Risky Choice Behavior in a Broad Population," Discussion Paper 2009-12, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  8. Glenn Harrison & E. Rutström, 2009. "Expected utility theory and prospect theory: one wedding and a decent funeral," Experimental Economics, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 133-158, June.
  9. Breitmoser, Yves, 2010. "Structural modeling of altruistic giving," MPRA Paper 24262, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Fehr, Ernst & Schmidt, Klaus M., 2010. "On inequity aversion: A reply to Binmore and Shaked," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 101-108, January.
  11. Anna Conte & Peter G. Moffatt, 2010. "The econometric modeling of social Preferences," Jena Economic Research Papers 2010-042, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena, Max-Planck-Institute of Economics.
  12. Friedel Bolle & Yves Breitmoser & Jana Heimel & Claudia Vogel, 2012. "Multiple motives of pro-social behavior: evidence from the solidarity game," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 72(3), pages 303-321, March.
  13. Bolle, Friedel & Breitmoser, Yves & Otto, Philipp E., 2011. "A positive theory of cooperative games: The logit core and its variants," MPRA Paper 32918, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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