Projection methods and scenarios for public and private pension information
AbstractPublic pensions - the primary pillar of old-age income provision - will, in the future, be less generous than they have been in the past, in particular owing to the impact of demographic change. The pension gap is supposed to be plugged by the second and third pillars of pension provision. However, people require reliable planning information if they are to exercise greater individual responsibility. It is therefore absolutely essential that adequate information is made available about the level of pension benefits that will be generated by each pillar of old-age pension provision. This paper outlines a number of different means of presenting the level of future pensions and the assumptions on which such extrapolations are necessarily based. Our work is based on an assumed average rate of inflation of 1.5% and an average rate of real income growth not exceeding 1.5%. This last figure is derived from calculations made in the framework of a macroeconomic simulation model. This model also shows that while the funded pillar of old-age pension provision is not entirely immune to population aging, it is not substantially threatened by a substantial decrease in stock market prices, the so-called "asset meltdown".
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim in its series Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications with number 04-61.
Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: 16 Dec 2004
Date of revision:
Note: Financial support from the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, SFB 504, at the University of Mannheim, is gratefully acknowledged.
Contact details of provider:
Postal: D-68131 Mannheim
Phone: (49) (0) 621-292-2547
Fax: (49) (0) 621-292-5594
Web page: http://www.sfb504.uni-mannheim.de/
More information through EDIRC
Web page: http://www.sfb504.uni-mannheim.de
Other versions of this item:
- Axel Börsch-Supan & Anette Reil-Held & Alexander Ludwig, 2005. "Projection methods and scenarios for public and private pension information," MEA discussion paper series 05068, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
- Z00 - Other Special Topics - - General - - - General
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Axel H. Boersch-Supan & Joachim K. Winter, 2001. "Population Aging, Savings Behavior and Capital Markets," NBER Working Papers 8561, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lothar Essig & Anette Reil-Held, 2003. "Chancen und Risiken der "Riester-Renter"," MEA discussion paper series 03035, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
- Börsch-Supan, Axel & Ludwig, Alexander & Winter, Joachim, 2004. "Aging, Pension Reform, and Capital Flows:," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 04-65, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Carsten Schmidt).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.