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The impact of demographic change on public finances: projections for the German public pension scheme: Model calculation up to 2050

Author

Listed:
  • Martin Werding
  • Harald Blau

Abstract

This study present model calculations of the long-term effects of demographic change on the public pension scheme and public finances in Germany in light of international comparisons. The most important result of all variants of the model calculations is that the prospects for financing the public pension scheme continues to deteriorate after 2030 – the time horizon of all recent reforms. Taking this into account, pension reform must continue and increasingly be supplemented by private, funded forms of pension insurance.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Werding & Harald Blau, 2002. "The impact of demographic change on public finances: projections for the German public pension scheme: Model calculation up to 2050," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 8.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifobei:8
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Robert Fenge & Martin Werding, 2004. "Ageing and the tax implied in public pension schemes: simulations for selected OECD countries," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 25(2), pages 159-200, June.
    2. Martin Werding & Herbert Hofmann & Hans-Joachim Reinhard, 2007. "Das Rentenmodell der katholischen Verbände : Studie im Auftrag des Ministeriums für Arbeit, Gesundheit und Soziales des Landes Nordrhein-Westfalen, der Katholischen Arbeitnehmer-Bewegung Deutschlands ," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 34, October.
    3. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Ludwig, Alexander & Reil-Held, Anette, 2004. "Projection methods and scenarios for public and private pension information," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 04-61, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
    4. Robert Fenge & Martin Werding, 2003. "Ageing and Fiscal Imbalances Across Generations: Concepts of Measurement," CESifo Working Paper Series 842, CESifo.
    5. Werding, Martin, 2016. "Modellrechnungen für den vierten Tragfähigkeitsbericht des BMF [Simulations for the 4th Sustainability Report]," FiFo Reports - FiFo-Berichte 20, University of Cologne, FiFo Institute for Public Economics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure

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