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A Panel Data Analysis on FDI and Exports

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  • Martin Falk

    (WIFO)

  • Mariya Hake

    (WIFO)

Abstract

The present paper investigates the link between exports and the outward FDI stock using a panel of industries and seven EU countries for the period 1973-2004. In particular, we use the panel causality tests developed by Holtz-Eakin, Newey, and Rosen (1988). Estimates using system GMM estimators show that exports cause FDI but not vice versa. The long-run elasticity of the outward FDI stock with respect to exports is 0.78 and highly significant. Separate estimates by destination country yields the same result that exports cause outward FDI but the effect is only significant for the CEE countries and other developed countries (i.e. United States, Japan, Canada, Switzerland, Norway, etc.).

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by FIW in its series FIW Research Reports series with number I-012.

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Length: 32
Date of creation: Jun 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wsr:ecbook:2008:i:i-012

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Related research

Keywords: exports; FDI; dynamic panel data methods;

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References

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  1. M. T. Alguacil & V. Orts, 2002. "A multivariate cointegrated model testing for temporal causality between exports and outward foreign investment: the Spanish case," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(1), pages 119-132.
  2. Helpman, Elhanan & Melitz, Marc J & Yeaple, Stephen R, 2003. "Export versus FDI," CEPR Discussion Papers 3741, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
  4. Markusen, James R., 1984. "Multinationals, multi-plant economies, and the gains from trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3-4), pages 205-226, May.
  5. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
  6. Harald Oberhofer & Michael Pfaffermayr, . "FDI versus Exports. Substitutes or Complements? A Three Nation Model and Empirical Evidence," Working Papers 2007-28, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck.
  7. Lipsey, Robert E & Weiss, Merle Yahr, 1984. "Foreign Production and Exports of Individual Firms," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 66(2), pages 304-08, May.
  8. Lipsey, Robert E & Weiss, Merle Yahr, 1981. "Foreign Production and Exports in Manufacturing Industries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 63(4), pages 488-94, November.
  9. Clausing, Kimberly A, 2000. "Does Multinational Activity Displace Trade?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, Western Economic Association International, vol. 38(2), pages 190-205, April.
  10. Bruce A. Blonigen, 1999. "In Search of Substitution Between Foreign Production and Exports," NBER Working Papers 7154, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Jonathan Eaton & Akiko Tamura, 1995. "Bilateralism and Regionalism in Japanese and U.S. Trade and Direct Foreign Investment Patterns," NBER Working Papers 4758, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Markusen, James R. & Venables, Anthony J., 1998. "Multinational firms and the new trade theory," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 183-203, December.
  13. David L. Carr & James R. Markusen & Keith E. Maskus, 2001. "Estimating the Knowledge-Capital Model of the Multinational Enterprise," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(3), pages 693-708, June.
  14. Lionel Fontagné, 1999. "Foreign Direct Investment and International Trade: Complements or Substitutes?," OECD Science, Technology and Industry Working Papers 1999/3, OECD Publishing.
  15. S. Lael Brainard, 1993. "A Simple Theory of Multinational Corporations and Trade with a Trade-Off Between Proximity and Concentration," NBER Working Papers 4269, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Roger Svensson, 1996. "Effects of overseas production on home country exports: Evidence based on Swedish multinationals," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 132(2), pages 304-329, September.
  17. Helpman, Elhanan, 1984. "A Simple Theory of International Trade with Multinational Corporations," Scholarly Articles 3445092, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  18. Holtz-Eakin, Douglas & Newey, Whitney & Rosen, Harvey S, 1988. "Estimating Vector Autoregressions with Panel Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 56(6), pages 1371-95, November.
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Cited by:
  1. Chaido Dritsaki & Melina Dritsaki, 2012. "Exports and FDI: A Granger causality analysis in a heterogeneous panel," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(4), pages 3128-3139.
  2. Miroslav Mateev & Iliya Tsekov, 2014. "Are there any top FDI performers among EU-15 and CEE countries? A comparative panel data analysis," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 38(3), pages 337-374.

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