The method of "excess sensitivity" of Bajada (1999, 2001, 2002) indicates a large underground economy in Australia, with estimates of unrecorded income around 15 per cent of official GDP. These estimates concern policymakers, especially those agencies responsible for national accounts, tax collection, economic stabilization and law enforcement. We show that the method exhibits a severe form of non-robustness, in which the results change markedly with a simple change in the units of measurement of the variables. There is a separate problem in which a key parameter is set to an unrealistic value that makes the estimates many times too high.
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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Macroeconomics with number
0509025.
Find related papers by JEL classification: C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion
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