Australia's Cash Economy: Are the estimates credible?
AbstractThe method of "excess sensitivity" of Bajada (1999, 2001, 2002) indicates a large underground economy in Australia, with estimates of unrecorded income around 15 per cent of official GDP. These estimates concern policymakers, especially those agencies responsible for national accounts, tax collection, economic stabilization and law enforcement. We show that the method exhibits a severe form of non-robustness, in which the results change markedly with a simple change in the units of measurement of the variables. There is a separate problem in which a key parameter is set to an unrealistic value that makes the estimates many times too high.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by EconWPA in its series Macroeconomics with number 0509025.
Length: 19 pages
Date of creation: 23 Sep 2005
Date of revision: 23 Sep 2005
Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 19
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underground economy; currency demand; tax evasion; econometric models;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
- E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
- E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
- H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2005-10-04 (All new papers)
- NEP-FMK-2005-10-04 (Financial Markets)
- NEP-MAC-2005-10-04 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-PBE-2005-10-04 (Public Economics)
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- Bajada, Christopher, 1999. "Estimates of the Underground Economy in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 75(231), pages 369-84, December.
- Christopher Bajada, 2003. "Business Cycle Properties of the Legitimate and Underground Economy in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 79(247), pages 397-411, December.
- Dominik H. Enste & Friedrich Schneider, 2000. "Shadow Economies: Size, Causes, and Consequences," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 38(1), pages 77-114, March.
- Rolf Mirus & Roger S. Smith & Vladimir Karoleff, 1994. "Canada's Underground Economy Revisited: Update and Critique," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 20(3), pages 235-252, September.
- Ahumada, Hildegart & Alvaredo, Facundo & Canavese, Alfredo J., 2006. "The Demand for Currency Approach and the Size of the Shadow Economy: A Critical Assessment," Berkeley Olin Program in Law & Economics, Working Paper Series qt6zn9p98b, Berkeley Olin Program in Law & Economics.
- Pickhardt, Michael & Sardà Pons, Jordi, 2010.
"The size of the underground economy in Germany: A correction of the record and new evidence from the Modified-Cash-deposit-Ratio approach,"
2072/148479, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics.
- Michael Pickhardt & Jordi Sarda, 2011. "The size of the underground economy in Germany: a correction of the record and new evidence from the modified-cash-deposit-ratio approach," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 143-163, August.
- Pickhardt, Michael & Sarda, Jordi, 2010. "The size of the underground economy in Germany: A correction of the record and new evidence from the Modified-Cash-Deposit-Ratio approach," CAWM Discussion Papers 36, Center of Applied Economic Research Münster (CAWM), University of Münster.
- Michael Pickhardt & Jordi Sarda, . "The size of the underground economy in Germany: A correction of the record and new evidence from the Modified-Cash-Deposit-Ratio approach," Working Papers 201036, Institute of Spatial and Housing Economics, Munster Universitary.
- Trevor Breusch, 2005. "Estimating the Underground Economy using MIMIC Models," Econometrics 0507003, EconWPA, revised 25 Jul 2005.
- Gemmell, Norman & Hasseldine, John, 2012. "The Tax Gap: A Methodological Review," Working Paper Series 2435, Victoria University of Wellington, Chair in Public Finance.
- Diab Harb & Prasad S. Bhattacharya, 2008. "Revealing Australia’s Underground Economy," Economics Series 2008_05, Deakin University, Faculty of Business and Law, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance.
- Ahumada, Hildegart & Alvaredo, Facundo & Canavese, Alfredo, 2008. "The monetary method to measure the shadow economy: The forgotten problem of the initial conditions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 101(2), pages 97-99, November.
- Tran-Nam, Binh & Vu, Linh & Andrew, Brian, 2007. "Personal Income Tax Reform in Australia: A Specific Proposal," Economic Analysis and Policy (EAP), Queensland University of Technology (QUT), School of Economics and Finance, vol. 37(2), pages 163-186, September.
- Luisanna Onnis & Patrizio Tirelli, 2011. "Institutions, policies and economic development. What are the causes of the shadow economy?," Working Papers 206, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2011.
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