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Impact of U.S. Tariffs on Democratic Vote Share

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Author Info
Miaojie Yu

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Abstract

This paper provides evidence on an amended Mayer-Heckscher-Ohlin model with parties by studying the effects of U.S. tariffs on the Democratic vote share. The effects are estimated with fixed effects and Two-Stage Least Squares based on data from the House of Representatives from the years 1982 to 2000. Weighted trade policy proxy for each congressional district are constructed and shown to be significant. Overall, a 10% decrease of weighted tariffs leads to a 12% decrease in the Democratic vote share in the election to the House, ceteris paribus. Also, the predictions of the model for electoral outcome are consistent with today’s U.S. politics.

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File URL: http://129.3.20.41/eps/it/papers/0511/0511001.pdf
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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series International Trade with number 0511001.

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Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: 03 Nov 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpit:0511001

Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 35
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Web page: http://129.3.20.41

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Related research
Keywords: tariffs Democratic vote share campaign contributions House election

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Country and Industry Studies of Trade
P16 - Economic Systems - - Capitalist Systems - - - Political Economy of Capitalism

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Baldwin, Robert E & Magee, Christopher S, 2000. " Is Trade Policy for Sale? Congressional Voting on Recent Trade Bills," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 105(1-2), pages 79-101, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Trefler, Daniel, 1993. "Trade Liberalization and the Theory of Endogenous Protection: An Econometric Study of U.S. Import Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(1), pages 138-60, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Grossman, Gene M & Helpman, Elhanan, 1994. "Protection for Sale," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 833-50, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock, 1997. "Instrumental Variables Regression with Weak Instruments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(3), pages 557-586, May.
    Other versions:
  5. Anderson, T W & Sawa, Takamitsu, 1979. "Evaluation of the Distribution Function of the Two-Stage Least Squares Estimate," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(1), pages 163-82, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Mayer, Wolfgang, 1984. "Endogenous Tariff Formation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(5), pages 970-85, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Dutt, Pushan & Mitra, Devashish, 2002. "Endogenous trade policy through majority voting: an empirical investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 107-133, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Beaulieu, Eugene, 2002. "The Stolper-Samuelson Theorem Faces Congress," Review of International Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 10(2), pages 343-60, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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