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A Further Re-Examination of the Contrarian Investment Strategy: Evidence from Multivariate Tests

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  • Pin-Huang Chou
  • Robert P. Parks
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Abstract

This paper investigates the performance of the contrarian investment strategy using the CAPM and APT. The results from multivariate tests of structural changes based on the CAPM show that the systematic risks of contrarian portfolios are not stable over time. In addition, the mean-variance efficiency of two market indexes, equal-weighted and value-weighted, cannot be rejected. This confirms Chan's (1988) findings that the abnormal returns documented in previous studies can be attributed to changes in systematic risks of the contrarian stocks. Using the asymptotic principal components technique to extract the APT factors and subsequently running regressions of contrarian stock returns on those factors, we find that the APT models explain the returns of contrarian stocks very well. The empirical results suggest that the contrarian investment strategy does not outperform the market, and the CAPM and the APT work equally well in evaluating the contrarian performance.

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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Finance with number 9307001.

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Date of creation: 22 Jul 1993
Date of revision: 25 Jul 1993
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpfi:9307001

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  1. Connor, Gregory & Korajczyk, Robert A., 1988. "Risk and return in an equilibrium APT : Application of a new test methodology," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 255-289, September.
  2. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
  3. Andrew W. Lo & A. Craig MacKinlay, 1991. "When are Contrarian Profits Due to Stock Market Overreaction?," NBER Working Papers 2977, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Gregory Connor and Robert A. Korajczyk., 1988. "The Attributes, Behavior and Performance of U.S. Mutual Funds," Research Program in Finance Working Papers 181, University of California at Berkeley.
  5. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard, 1985. " Does the Stock Market Overreact?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-805, July.
  6. Mark Grinblatt & Sheridan Titman, . "Portfolio Performance Evaluation: Old Issues and New Insights," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 22-88, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  7. Lee, Cheng Few & Rahman, Shafiqur, 1990. "Market Timing, Selectivity, and Mutual Fund Performance: An Empirical Investigation," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 63(2), pages 261-78, April.
  8. Chamberlain, Gary & Rothschild, Michael, 1983. "Arbitrage, Factor Structure, and Mean-Variance Analysis on Large Asset Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(5), pages 1281-304, September.
  9. Roll, Richard, 1977. "A critique of the asset pricing theory's tests Part I: On past and potential testability of the theory," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 129-176, March.
  10. MacKinlay, A. Craig, 1987. "On multivariate tests of the CAPM," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 341-371, June.
  11. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Titman, Sheridan, 1993. " Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 65-91, March.
  12. Connor, Gregory & Korajczyk, Robert A., 1986. "Performance measurement with the arbitrage pricing theory : A new framework for analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 373-394, March.
  13. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard H, 1987. " Further Evidence on Investor Overreaction and Stock Market Seasonalit y," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(3), pages 557-81, July.
  14. Ball, Ray & Kothari, S. P. & Shanken, Jay, 1995. "Problems in measuring portfolio performance An application to contrarian investment strategies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 79-107, May.
  15. Fama, Eugene F, 1991. " Efficient Capital Markets: II," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1575-617, December.
  16. Dybvig, Philip H & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. " Yes, the APT Is Testable," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(4), pages 1173-88, September.
  17. Chan, K C, 1988. "On the Contrarian Investment Strategy," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 61(2), pages 147-63, April.
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