Bayesian Methods for Improving Credit Scoring Models
AbstractWe propose a Bayesian methodology that enables banks to improve their credit scoring models by imposing prior information. As prior information, we use coefficients from credit scoring models estimated on other data sets. Through simulations, we explore the default prediction power of three Bayesian estimators in three different scenarios and find that they perform better than standard maximum likelihood estimates. We recommend that banks consider Bayesian estimation for internal and regulatory default prediction models.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by EconWPA in its series Finance with number 0505024.
Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: 31 May 2005
Date of revision:
Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 27
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Credit Scoring; Bayesian Inference; Bankruptcy Prediction;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
- G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
- G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2005-06-05 (All new papers)
- NEP-CMP-2005-06-05 (Computational Economics)
- NEP-ECM-2005-06-05 (Econometrics)
- NEP-FIN-2005-06-05 (Finance)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Zellner, Arnold & Rossi, Peter E., 1984. "Bayesian analysis of dichotomous quantal response models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 365-393, July.
- Grunert, Jens & Norden, Lars & Weber, Martin, 2005. "The role of non-financial factors in internal credit ratings," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 509-531, February.
- Shumway, Tyler, 2001. "Forecasting Bankruptcy More Accurately: A Simple Hazard Model," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74(1), pages 101-24, January.
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