Estimating the probability of large negative stock market
AbstractCorrect assessment of the risks associated with likely economic outcomes is vital for effective decision making. The objective of investment in the stock market is to obtain positive market returns. The risk, however, is the danger of suffering large negative market returns. A variety of parametric models can be used in assessing this type of risk. A major disadvantage of these techniques is that they require a specific assumption to be made about the nature of the statistical distribution. Projections based on this method are conditional on the validity of this underlying assumption, which itself is not testable. An alternative approach is to use a non-parametric methodology, based on the statistical extreme value theory, which provides a means for evaluating the unconditional distribution (or at least the tails of this distribution) beyond the historically observed values. The methodology involves the calculation of the tail index, which is used to estimate the relevant exceedence probabilities (for different critical levels of loss) for a selection of food industry companies. Information about these downside risks is critically important for investment decision making. In addition, the tail index estimates permit examination of the stable Paretian hypothesis.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by EconWPA in its series Finance with number 0409011.
Date of creation: 07 Sep 2004
Date of revision:
Note: Type of Document - pdf
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://18.104.22.168
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
- G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
- G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
- Q19 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Other
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-CFN-2004-09-12 (Corporate Finance)
- NEP-FIN-2004-09-12 (Finance)
- NEP-FMK-2004-09-12 (Financial Markets)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Huisman, Ronald, et al, 2001. "Tail-Index Estimates in Small Samples," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(2), pages 208-16, April.
- Allan Timmermann & Halbert White & Ryan Sullivan, 1998. "The Dangers of Data-Driven Inference: The Case of Calendar Effects in Stock Returns," FMG Discussion Papers dp304, Financial Markets Group.
- Longin, Francois M, 1996. "The Asymptotic Distribution of Extreme Stock Market Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 69(3), pages 383-408, July.
- Sullivan, Ryan & Timmermann, Allan & White, Halbert, 1998. "Dangers of Data-Driven Inference: The Case of Calendar Effects in Stock Returns," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt2z02z6d9, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- S. James Press, 1967. "A Compound Events Model for Security Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 40, pages 317.
- Benoit Mandelbrot, 1963. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36, pages 394.
- J. Huston McCulloch, 1978. "Interest Rate Risk and Capital Adequacy For Traditional Banks and Financial Intermediaries," NBER Working Papers 0237, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (EconWPA).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.