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Statistical Modeling of Stock Returns: Explanatory or Descriptive? A Historical Survey with Some Methodological Reflections

Author

Listed:
  • Phoebe Koundouri
  • Nikolaos Kourogenis

    (Department of Banking and Financial Management, University of Piraeus.)

  • Nikitas Pittis

    (University of Piraeus, Greece)

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is twofold: first, to survey the statistical models of stock returns that have been suggested in the finance literature since the middle of the twentieth century; second, to examine under the prism of the contemporary philosophy of science, which of the aforementioned models can be classified as explanatory and which as descriptive. Special emphasis is paid on tracing the interactions between the motivation for the birth of statistical models of stock returns in any given historical period and the concurrent changes of the theoretical paradigm in financial economics, as well as those of probability theory.

Suggested Citation

  • Phoebe Koundouri & Nikolaos Kourogenis & Nikitas Pittis, 2014. "Statistical Modeling of Stock Returns: Explanatory or Descriptive? A Historical Survey with Some Methodological Reflections," DEOS Working Papers 1410, Athens University of Economics and Business.
    • Handle: RePEc:aue:wpaper:1410
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Kiviet Jan F., 2017. "Discriminating between (in)valid External Instruments and (in)valid Exclusion Restrictions," Journal of Econometric Methods, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-9, January.
    2. Jan F. Kiviet & Zhenxi Chen, 2018. "A Critical Appraisal of Studies Analyzing Co-movement of International Stock Markets," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 19(1), pages 151-196, May.
    3. Jan F. Kiviet & Zhenxi Chen, 2016. "A critical appraisal of studies analyzing co-movement of international stock markets with a focus on East-Asian indices," Economic Growth Centre Working Paper Series 1606, Nanyang Technological University, School of Social Sciences, Economic Growth Centre.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock Returns; Statistical Model; Explanatory Model; Scientific Explanation; Market Efficiency; Brownian Motion.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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