Path dependence, its critics and the quest for ‘historical economics’
AbstractThe concept of path dependence refers to a property of contingent, non- reversible dynamical processes, including a wide array of biological and social processes that can properly be described as 'evolutionary.' To dispell existing confusions in the literature, and clarify the meaning and significance of path dependence for economists, the paper formulates definitions that relate the phenomenon to the property of non-ergodicity in stochastic processes; it examines the nature of the relationship between between path dependence and 'market failure,' and discusses the meaning of 'lock-in.' Unlike tests for the presence of non-ergodicity, assessments of the economic significance of path dependence are shown to involve difficult issues of counterfactual specification, and the welfare evaluation of alternative dynamic paths rather than terminal states. The policy implications of the existence of path dependence are shown to be more subtle and, as a rule, quite different from those which have been presumed by critics of the concept. A concluding section applies the notion of 'lock-in' reflexively to the evolution of economic analysis, suggesting that resistence to historical economics is a manifestation of 'sunk cost hysteresis' in the sphere of human cognitive development.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by EconWPA in its series Economic History with number 0502003.
Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: 10 Feb 2005
Date of revision:
Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 25
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path dependence; non-ergodicity; irreversibility; lock-in; counterfactual analysis;
Other versions of this item:
- Paul A. David, . "Path Dependence, its critics, and the quest for 'historical economics'," Working Papers 00011, Stanford University, Department of Economics.
- N - Economic History
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2005-04-16 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBE-2005-04-16 (Cognitive & Behavioural Economics)
- NEP-HIS-2005-04-16 (Business, Economic & Financial History)
- NEP-HPE-2005-04-16 (History & Philosophy of Economics)
- NEP-PKE-2005-04-16 (Post Keynesian Economics)
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- David, Paul A, 1985. "Clio and the Economics of QWERTY," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(2), pages 332-37, May.
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- Talk:Path dependence in Wikipedia (English)
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