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Tax Austerity: Does it avert solvency crises?

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  • Christos Shiamptanis

    (Wilfrid Laurier University)

Abstract

Many countries are adopting austerity measures, whereby governments aggressively raise taxes, with the hope to dispel future solvency crisis. This paper investigates the implications of tax austerity on the likelihood of a solvency crisis. We derive the maximum level of debt consistent with solvency, labeled as the effective fiscal limit on debt, and we show that its position depends on tax austerity. We find that countries like Italy that undergo strict tax austerity could lower their effective fiscal limit and induce a solvency crisis in the near future.

Suggested Citation

  • Christos Shiamptanis, 2019. "Tax Austerity: Does it avert solvency crises?," LCERPA Working Papers ec0119, Laurier Centre for Economic Research and Policy Analysis.
    • Handle: RePEc:wlu:lcerpa:ec0119
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Huixin Bi & Eric M. Leeper & Campbell Leith, 2013. "Uncertain Fiscal Consolidations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0, pages 31-63, February.
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    3. Francesco Giavazzi & Marco Pagano, 1990. "Can Severe Fiscal Contractions Be Expansionary? Tales of Two Small European Countries," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1990, Volume 5, pages 75-122, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Enrique G. Mendoza & Linda L. Tesar & Jing Zhang, 2014. "Saving Europe?: The Unpleasant Arithmetic of Fiscal Austerity in Integrated Economies," NBER Working Papers 20200, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Cristina Arellano, 2008. "Default Risk and Income Fluctuations in Emerging Economies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 690-712, June.
    6. Cristina Arellano & Yan Bai, 2017. "Fiscal austerity during debt crises," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 64(4), pages 657-673, December.
    7. Bi, Huixin, 2012. "Sovereign default risk premia, fiscal limits, and fiscal policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 389-410.
    8. Betty C. Daniel, Christos Shiamptanis, 2019. "Identifying Countries at Risk of Fiscal Crisis: High-Debt Developed Countries," LCERPA Working Papers ec0118, Laurier Centre for Economic Research and Policy Analysis.
    9. Robertson, D. & Tambakis, D., 2016. "Long-Run Debt Ratios with Fiscal Fatigue," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1674, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    10. Daniel, Betty C. & Shiamptanis, Christos, 2012. "Fiscal risk in a monetary union," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 1289-1309.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ke Pang, Christos Shiamptanis, 2020. "Fiscal implications of the pandemic," LCERPA Working Papers ec0122, Laurier Centre for Economic Research and Policy Analysis, revised 2020.
    2. Ke Pang, Christos Shiamptanis, 2020. "Fiscal implications of the pandemic," LCERPA Working Papers ec0122, Laurier Centre for Economic Research and Policy Analysis, revised 2020.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal limit; Austerity; Solvency Crisis; Default;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General

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