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Reasons for the U.S. growth period in the nineties: non-keynesian effects, asset wealth and productivity

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  • Anton Burger

    ()
    (Research Institute for Regulatory Economics, Vienna University of Economics & B.A.)

  • Martin Zagler

    ()
    (Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics & B.A.)

Abstract

The 1990s were an extraordinary period for the US economy, both because of declining budget deficits and beginning budget surpluses, as well as for high rates of economic growth. This paper confronts the conventional wisdom that high growth rates caused budget improvements, and claims that budget consolidations also contributed to foster economic growth. We propose the existence of a non-Keynesian effect, where fiscal policy runs in contrast to Keynesian theory and a fiscal consolidation can foster economic growth. We present empirical evidence that an increase in tax revenues reduces the distortionary bias of future taxation and therefore leads to an increase in consumer confidence and consumption. Two supply side effects were proposed. A reduction in transfers reduced labor market pressures and government savings provided liquidity for financial markets which both increased incentives to invest.

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Paper provided by Vienna University of Economics, Department of Economics in its series Department of Economics Working Papers with number wuwp095.

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Date of creation: Aug 2007
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Handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwwuw:wuwp095

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