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The Seasonality of Conflict

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  • Guardado,Jenny
  • Pennings,Steven Michael

Abstract

This paper investigates whether poor employment prospects of potential insurgents help to fuel conflict. The paper provides a new test of this "opportunity cost mechanism" using one of the largest shocks to labor demand in agricultural societies: harvest. Theoretically, the paper shows that because seasonal harvest shocks are temporary and anticipated, they change opportunity costs while keeping the dynamic benefits of fighting constant, yielding unbiased estimates even if those benefits are unobserved. In contrast, many other shocks in the conflict literature are persistent and unanticipated, thus also varying the dynamic benefits of fighting that confound estimates of the opportunity cost mechanism. Empirically, the paper estimates the effect of harvest shocks on conflict intensity in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Pakistan using subnational variation in the timing and intensity of harvest driven by local climatic conditions. Consistent with the opportunity cost mechanism, the results show that the onset of harvest usually reduces the number of insurgent attacks.

Suggested Citation

  • Guardado,Jenny & Pennings,Steven Michael, 2020. "The Seasonality of Conflict," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9373, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9373
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. David Ubilava & Justin V. Hastings & Kadir Atalay, 2023. "Agricultural windfalls and the seasonality of political violence in Africa," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 105(5), pages 1309-1332, October.
    2. Ubilava, David & Atalay, Kadir & Hastings, Justin V, 2021. "Commodity Price Shocks and the Seasonality of Conflict," Working Papers 2021-03, University of Sydney, School of Economics, revised Jul 2021.

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