IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/war/wpaper/2022-27.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

What makes Punks worthy? Valuation of Non-Fungible Tokens based on the CryptoPunks collection using the hedonic pricing method

Author

Listed:
  • Ewelina Plachimowicz

    (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences)

  • Piotr Wójcik

    (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences)

Abstract

This article focuses on an attempt to value Non-Fungible Tokens from the CryptoPunks collection. Based on the data from January 2021 to July 2021, a hedonic pricing model was built, based on the transaction history and characteristics of a given NFT, as well as external markets variables - cryptocurrency prices (Bitcoin and Ethereum), natural gas prices and the popularity of the collection in social media (Twitter). According to the literature, we decided to build three regression models: Ordinary Least Squares model, XGBoost algorithm and bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory Model. Based on the results, we were able to prove that such complex issues as NFT valuation require more advanced methods than the classical regression model. In addition, we proved that one of the most important categories of variables in the case of NFT valuation is the history of token sales and its characteristics, indicating a particular rarity. Moreover, we have shown that the cryptocurrency and natural gas market is not an important factor in the NFT valuation. Finally, we proved that the increase in the popularity of tokens in social media translates into an increase in NFT prices, and this is an important element when trying to valuate tokens.

Suggested Citation

  • Ewelina Plachimowicz & Piotr Wójcik, 2022. "What makes Punks worthy? Valuation of Non-Fungible Tokens based on the CryptoPunks collection using the hedonic pricing method," Working Papers 2022-27, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    • Handle: RePEc:war:wpaper:2022-27
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.wne.uw.edu.pl/download_file/2251/0
    File Function: First version, 2022
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Horky, Florian & Rachel, Carolina & Fidrmuc, Jarko, 2022. "Price determinants of non-fungible tokens in the digital art market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    2. Nauro F. Campos & Renata Leite Barbosa, 2009. "Paintings and numbers: an econometric investigation of sales rates, prices, and returns in Latin American art auctions," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(1), pages 28-51, January.
    3. Lennart Ante, 2022. "The Non-Fungible Token (NFT) Market and Its Relationship with Bitcoin and Ethereum," FinTech, MDPI, vol. 1(3), pages 1-9, June.
    4. Dowling, Michael, 2022. "Is non-fungible token pricing driven by cryptocurrencies?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    5. Luc Renneboog & Christophe Spaenjers, 2013. "Buying Beauty: On Prices and Returns in the Art Market," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(1), pages 36-53, February.
    6. Matthieu Nadini & Laura Alessandretti & Flavio Di Giacinto & Mauro Martino & Luca Maria Aiello & Andrea Baronchelli, 2021. "Mapping the NFT revolution: market trends, trade networks and visual features," Papers 2106.00647, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2021.
    7. Mathieu Aubry & Roman Kraeussl & Gustavo Manso & Christophe Spaenjers, 2020. "Machines and Masterpieces: Predicting Prices in the Art Auction Market," Working Papers hal-02896049, HAL.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mingxuan He, 2023. "Deep Learning for Dynamic NFT Valuation," Papers 2312.05346, arXiv.org.
    2. Zhang, Luyao & Sun, Yutong & Quan, Yutong & Cao, Jiaxun & Tong, Xin, 2023. "On the Mechanics of NFT Valuation: AI Ethics and Social Media," OSF Preprints qwpdx, Center for Open Science.
    3. Fridgen, Gilbert & Kräussl, Roman & Papageorgiou, Orestis & Tugnetti, Alessandro, 2023. "The fundamental value of art NFTs," CFS Working Paper Series 709, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    4. Horky, Florian & Rachel, Carolina & Fidrmuc, Jarko, 2022. "Price determinants of non-fungible tokens in the digital art market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    5. Lin, Min-Bin & Wang, Bingling & Bocart, Fabian Y.R.P. & Hafner, Christian M. & Härdle, Wolfgang K., 2022. "DAI Digital Art Index : a robust price index for heterogeneous digital assets," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2022036, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    6. Ghosh, Bikramaditya & Bouri, Elie & Wee, Jung Bum & Zulfiqar, Noshaba, 2023. "Return and volatility properties: Stylized facts from the universe of cryptocurrencies and NFTs," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    7. Wang, Yizhi, 2022. "Volatility spillovers across NFTs news attention and financial markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    8. Bao, Te & Ma, Mengzhong & Wen, Yonggang, 2023. "Herding in the non-fungible token (NFT) market," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    9. Umar, Zaghum & Usman, Muhammad & Choi, Sun-Yong & Rice, John, 2023. "Diversification benefits of NFTs for conventional asset investors: Evidence from CoVaR with higher moments and optimal hedge ratios," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    10. Wang, Jying-Nan & Lee, Yen-Hsien & Liu, Hung-Chun & Hsu, Yuan-Teng, 2023. "Dissecting returns of non-fungible tokens (NFTs): Evidence from CryptoPunks," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    11. Garay, Urbi & Pérez, Eduardo & Pulga, Fredy, 2022. "Color intensity variations and art prices: An examination of Latin American art," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 158-176.
    12. Belma Öztürkkal & Aslı Togan-Eğrican, 2020. "Art investment: hedging or safe haven through financial crises," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 44(3), pages 481-529, September.
    13. Andrea Barbon & Angelo Ranaldo, 2023. "NFT Bubbles," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 23-20, Swiss Finance Institute.
    14. Garay, Urbi & Puggioni, Gavino & Molina, German & ter Horst, Enrique, 2022. "A Bayesian dynamic hedonic regression model for art prices," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 310-323.
    15. Garay, Urbi, 2021. "Determinants of art prices and performance by movements: Long-run evidence from an emerging market," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 413-426.
    16. Shailendra Gurjar & Usha Ananthakumar, 2023. "The economics of art: price determinants and returns on investment in Indian paintings," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 50(6), pages 839-859, January.
    17. Chih-Hung Wu & Chien-Yu Liu & Ting-Sheng Weng, 2023. "Critical Factors and Trends in NFT Technology Innovations," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-25, May.
    18. Anna Lucińska, 2015. "The Art Market in the European Union," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 21(1), pages 67-79, March.
    19. Umar, Zaghum & Polat, Onur & Choi, Sun-Yong & Teplova, Tamara, 2022. "Dynamic connectedness between non-fungible tokens, decentralized finance, and conventional financial assets in a time-frequency framework," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    20. Ventura Charlin & Arturo Cifuentes, 2013. "A new financial metric for the art market," Papers 1309.6929, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2015.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    NFT; Non-Fungible Token; pricing; valuation; luxury goods; cryptocurrencies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Z11 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - Economics of the Arts and Literature
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:war:wpaper:2022-27. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Marcin Bąba (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fesuwpl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.