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The limitations of the representativeness heuristic: further evidence from choices between lottery tickets

Author

Listed:
  • Michał Wiktor Krawczyk

    (Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw)

  • Joanna Rachubik

    (Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw)

Abstract

The representativeness heuristic (RH) proposes that people expect even a small sample to have similar characteristics to the parent population. One domain in which it appears to operate is the preference for combinations of numbers on lottery tickets: most players seem to avoid very characteristic, “unrepresentative” combinations, e.g. only containing very low numbers. Likewise, most players may avoid betting on a combination that was drawn recently, because it would seem particularly improbable to be drawn again. We confirm both of these tendencies in two field experiments, building upon Krawczyk and Rachubik (2019, KR19). However, we find no link between these two choices: it is not the same people that show the two biases. In this sense, the RH does not organize the data well. Nevertheless, there are some links related to rationality across the two choices – people who are willing to forgo a monetary payment in order to get the preferred ticket in one task are also willing to do it in the other. We find such preference to be related with misperception of probabilities and providing intuitive, incorrect answers in the Cognitive Reflection Test.

Suggested Citation

  • Michał Wiktor Krawczyk & Joanna Rachubik, 2019. "The limitations of the representativeness heuristic: further evidence from choices between lottery tickets," Working Papers 2019-11, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    • Handle: RePEc:war:wpaper:2019-11
    as

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    File URL: https://www.wne.uw.edu.pl/index.php/download_file/4934/
    File Function: First version, 2019
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Krawczyk, Michał Wiktor & Rachubik, Joanna, 2019. "The representativeness heuristic and the choice of lottery tickets: A field experiment," Judgment and Decision Making, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(1), pages 51-57, January.
    2. repec:cup:judgdm:v:14:y:2019:i:1:p:51-57 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Shane Frederick, 2005. "Cognitive Reflection and Decision Making," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 25-42, Fall.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Decision making under risk; Gambler’s fallacy; Lottery choice; Perception of randomness; Number preferences in lotteries; Representativeness heuristic;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C93 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Field Experiments
    • D01 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making

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