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Can We Invest Based on Equity Risk Premia and Risk Factors from Multi-Factor Models?

Author

Listed:
  • Paweł Sakowski

    (Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw)

  • Robert Ślepaczuk

    (Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw; Union Investment TFI S.A.)

  • Mateusz Wywiał

    (Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw; Quedex Derivatives Exchange)

Abstract

We find that detailed analysis of multi-factor models makes it possible to propose investment strategies based on equity risk premium disequlibrium. We examine two investment algorithms built on weekly data of world equity indices for emerging and developed countries in the period of 2000-2015. We create seven risk factors using additional data about market capitalisation, book value, country GDP and betas of equity indices. The first strategy utilises theoretical value of equity risk premium from seven-factor Markov-switching model with variables common for all countries and variables specific to developed/emerging countries. We compare theoretical with realised equity risk premium for a given index to undertake the buy/sell decisions. The second algorithm works only on eight risk factors and applies them as input variables to Markowitz models with alternative optimisation criteria (target risk, target return, maximum Sharpe ratio, minimum variance and equally weighted assets). Finally, we notice that the impact of risk factors on final results of investment strategy is much more important than the selection of a particular econometric model in order to correctly evaluate equity risk premium.

Suggested Citation

  • Paweł Sakowski & Robert Ślepaczuk & Mateusz Wywiał, 2016. "Can We Invest Based on Equity Risk Premia and Risk Factors from Multi-Factor Models?," Working Papers 2016-09, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    • Handle: RePEc:war:wpaper:2016-09
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    File URL: http://www.wne.uw.edu.pl/index.php/download_file/2553/
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. Paweł Sakowski & Anna Turovtseva, 2020. "Verification of Investment Opportunities on the Cryptocurrency Market within the Markowitz Framework," Working Papers 2020-41, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    2. Paweł Sakowski & Daria Turovtseva, 2020. "Does Bitcoin Improve Investment Portfolio Efficiency?," Working Papers 2020-42, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    investment algorithms; multi-factor models; Markov switching model; asset pricing models; equity risk premia; risk factors; Markowitz model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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