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End-user Informed Demographic Projections for Hamilton up to 2041

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Author Info

  • M. Cameron

    ()
    (University of Waikato)

  • W. Cochrane

    ()
    (University of Waikato)

  • J. Poot

    ()
    (University of Waikato)

Abstract

This report provides a set of projections of the population of Hamilton City and the larger Hamilton Zone. The projections have been calculated by means of the cohort component model. The projections can be considered alongside official Statistics New Zealand projections, but differ from the latter in terms of assumptions made about net migration. These assumptions constitute a number of scenarios that were informed by the Hamilton City Council and local consultations. These scenarios are linked to the potential impact of a number of economic development activities. The report also contains projections of the number of households, the labour force and two ethnic groups: Maori and New Zealand Europeans. In addition, a dwellings-based methodology is used to produce small area (Census Area Unit) projections. Across the scenarios, Hamilton City’s projected population growth over the next two decades ranges from 13.8 percent to 36.0 percent. This is between 1.5 to 12.2 percentage points higher than the corresponding projected national growth.

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File URL: ftp://mngt.waikato.ac.nz/RePEc/wai/pscdps/dp-66.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Waikato, Population Studies Centre in its series Population Studies Centre Discussion Papers with number dp-66.

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Length: 53 pages
Date of creation: 12 Jan 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wai:pscdps:dp-66

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Keywords: cohort component model; population; household; labour force; ethnicity; scenario; small area;

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  1. John Bryant & Veronica Jacobsen & Matthew Bell & Daniel Garrett, 2004. "Labour Force Participation and GDP in New Zealand," Treasury Working Paper Series 04/07, New Zealand Treasury.
  2. Sandra Baxendine & Bill Cochrane & Jacques Poot, 2005. "Demographic Change and Transport Needs in the Waikato Region," Population Studies Centre Discussion Papers dp-51, University of Waikato, Population Studies Centre.
  3. Florence Jaumotte, 2003. "Female Labour Force Participation: Past Trends and Main Determinants in OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 376, OECD Publishing.
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Cited by:
  1. Michael P. Cameron & Jacques Poot, 2010. "A Stochastic Sub-national Population Projection Methodology with an Application to the Waikato Region of New Zealand," Population Studies Centre Discussion Papers dp-70, University of Waikato, Population Studies Centre.

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