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Empirical Modeling of Deprivation Contagion among Social Exclusion Dimensions (Using MCMC Methods)

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Author Info
Ambra Poggi () (LABORatorio R. Rivelli)
Xavier Ramos () (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona and IZA)

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Abstract

Economic theory and empirical evidence clearly show that social exclusion dimensions are inter-related. Notwithstanding that, dimensions are usually assumed independent from one another in the economics literature. In this paper we explore the inter-dependency of social exclusion dimensions and study the transmission of deprivation among them. In particular, we propose the use of stochastic epidemic models, which are typically used to study the transmission of infectious diseases, to the analysis of deprivation diffusion among social exclusion dimensions with the aim of acquiring a deeper understanding of the mechanism governing deprivation transmission. We also provide an empirical implementation that investigates the consequences, in terms of future deprivation, for Italian and Spanish women of being jobless, as opposed to doing paid work. We also investigate the consequences of being unemployed versus being inactive. We conclude that working seems to act as a protective mechanism to shocks. In addition, conditional on losing one’s job, women who subsequently search for a job (unemployed) are more likely to experience contagion than women who do not search (inactive).

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 2614.

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Length: 17 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2007
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Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp2614

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Related research
Keywords: deprivation; social exclusion; contagion models; Markov chain Monte Carlo methods; metropolis-Hastings algorithm; stochastic models; propensity score;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Bayesian Analysis
C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods
I30 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare and Poverty - - - General

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Bossert, Walter & D'Ambrosio, Conchita & Peragine, Vito, 2004. "Deprivation and Social Exclusion," Cahiers de recherche 02-2004, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Philip D. O'Neill & David J. Balding & Niels G. Becker & Mervi Eerola & Denis Mollison, 2000. "Analyses of infectious disease data from household outbreaks by Markov chain Monte Carlo methods," Journal Of The Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 49(4), pages 517-542. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Heckman, James J, 1979. "Sample Selection Bias as a Specification Error," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(1), pages 153-61, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Stephen Nickell, 2004. "Poverty And Worklessness In Britain," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(494), pages C1-C25, 03. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Heckman, James J & Ichimura, Hidehiko & Todd, Petra E, 1997. "Matching as an Econometric Evaluation Estimator: Evidence from Evaluating a Job Training Programme," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 64(4), pages 605-54, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Ambra Poggi, 2007. "Does persistence of social exclusion exist in Spain?," Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 53-72, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Satya R. Chakravarty & Conchita D'Ambrosio, 2006. "The Measurement Of Social Exclusion," Review of Income and Wealth, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(3), pages 377-398, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Florence Jaumotte, 2003. "Female Labour Force Participation: Past Trends and Main Determinants in OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 376, OECD, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  9. Clark, Andrew E & Oswald, Andrew J, 1994. "Unhappiness and Unemployment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(424), pages 648-59, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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