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Accounting for Achievement in Athens: A Count Data Analysis of National Olympic Performance

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Abstract

We model summer Olympic medal counts using count data analysis. The advantage of this methodology is its explicit recognition of the discrete non-negative form of the dependent variable; i.e. the total number of medals won by a nation in a summer Olympiad. Using data from the most recent 2004 Summer Games in Athens, Poisson and negative binomial count data regression models are constructed. The chosen model is negative binomial and attaches statistical significance to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita, the age dependency ratio, and a relatively cold climate. In contrast to previous studies, population, health expenditure per capita, and the effect of being a host or neighbour nation of an Olympiad are all insignificant in explaining medal counts. We also find no “cricket effect” or “rugby effect.”

Suggested Citation

  • Glen Roberts, 2006. "Accounting for Achievement in Athens: A Count Data Analysis of National Olympic Performance," Econometrics Working Papers 0602, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
    • Handle: RePEc:vic:vicewp:0602
    Note: ISSN 1485-6441
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    File URL: https://www.uvic.ca/socialsciences/economics/_assets/docs/econometrics/ewp0602.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Imad A. Moosa & Lee Smith, 2004. "Economic Development Indicators as Determinants of Medal Winning at the Sydney Olympics: An Extreme Bounds Analysis," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(3), pages 288-301, September.
    2. Masters, William A & McMillan, Margaret S, 2001. "Climate and Scale in Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 167-186, September.
    3. Robert Hoffmann & Lee Chew Ging & Bala Ramasamy, 2002. "Public policy and olympic success," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(8), pages 545-548.
    4. Daniel K. N. Johnson & Ayfer Ali, 2004. "A Tale of Two Seasons: Participation and Medal Counts at the Summer and Winter Olympic Games," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 85(4), pages 974-993, December.
    5. Andrew B. Bernard & Meghan R. Busse, 2004. "Who Wins the Olympic Games: Economic Resources and Medal Totals," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 413-417, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Who will win the Olympics?
      by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2008-08-08 12:05:00
    2. Analysing Olympic Medal Data
      by Dave Giles in Econometrics Beat: Dave Giles' Blog on 2012-08-24 22:35:00

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    Cited by:

    1. Kavetsos, Georgios & Szymanski, Stefan, 2010. "National well-being and international sports events," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 158-171, April.
    2. Pablo Castellanos García & Jesús A. Dopico Castro & José M. Sánchez Santos, 2007. "The economic geography of football success: empirical evidence from european cities," Rivista di Diritto ed Economia dello Sport, Centro di diritto e business dello Sport, vol. 3(2), pages 67-88, Settembre.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Olympics; count data; Poisson model; negative binomial model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C16 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Econometric and Statistical Methods; Specific Distributions
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism

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