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Is Hosting the Games Enough to Win? A predictive economic model of medal wins at 2014 Winter Olympics

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  • Wladimir Andreff

    ()
    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Paris I - Panthéon-Sorbonne)

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    Abstract

    An econometric model which has first been estimated on medal wins at Summer Olympics and has predicted 88% of medal distribution at Beijing Games 2008, is revisited for Winter Olympics. After changing some variables to take into account the winter sports specificity, the model is estimated again on all Winter Games since 1964.Then it is used to predict (forecast) the medal distribution per country at the 2014 Sochi Winter Olympics.

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    File URL: http://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/docs/00/79/40/57/PDF/rev_Papers_of_E_Andreff_Sochi_medals.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by HAL in its series Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) with number halshs-00794057.

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    Date of creation: 2012
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    Publication status: Published, Papeles de Europa, 2012, 25, 51-75
    Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-00794057

    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: http://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00794057
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    Web page: http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/

    Related research

    Keywords: Olympics; winter sports; medal wins; econometric estimation; forecasting;

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    1. Pfau, Wade Donald, 2006. "Predicting the Medal Wins by Country at the 2006 Winter Olympic Games: An Econometrics Approach," MPRA Paper 18829, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Jiang, Minghua & Xu, Lixin Colin, 2005. "Medals in transition: explaining medal performance and inequality of Chinese provinces," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 158-172, March.
    3. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
    4. Forrest, David & Sanz, Ismael & Tena, J.D., 2010. "Forecasting national team medal totals at the Summer Olympic Games," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 576-588, July.
    5. Daniel K. N. Johnson & Ayfer Ali, 2004. "A Tale of Two Seasons: Participation and Medal Counts at the Summer and Winter Olympic Games," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 85(4), pages 974-993.
    6. Wolfgang Maennig & Christian Wellbrock, 2008. "Sozio-ökonomische Schätzungen Olympischer Medaillengewinne: Analyse-, Prognose- und Benchmarkmöglichkeiten," Working Papers 020, Chair for Economic Policy, University of Hamburg.
    7. Andrew B. Bernard & Meghan R. Busse, 2004. "Who Wins the Olympic Games: Economic Resources and Medal Totals," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 413-417, February.
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