Estimating Default Probabilities Using Stock Prices: The Swedish Banking Sector During the 1990s Banking Crisis
AbstractThe growing interest in management of credit risk and estimation of default probabilities has given rise to a range of more or less elaborate credit risk models. Hall and Miles (1990) suggests an approach of estimating failure probabilities based solely on stock market prices. The approach has the advantage of simplicity but relies on market efficiency to hold. In this paper we suggest an extension to the Hall and Miles (1990) model using extreme value theory and apply the extended model to the Swedish financial sector and to individual Swedish banks. The 15 year long sample in our study covers the period of the Swedish banking crisis of the early 1990s. We find a close correspondence between changes in the estimated probabilities of failure and the actual credit events occuring. Credit ratings from major credit rating agencies, on the other hand, are shown to react much less and much slower to credit quality changes.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney in its series Research Paper Series with number 92.
Date of creation: 01 Feb 2003
Date of revision:
banking crisis; default; credit risk; extreme value theory;
Other versions of this item:
- Byström, Hans, 2003. "Estimating Default Probabilities Using Stock Prices: The Swedish Banking Sector During the 1990s Banking Crisis," Working Papers 2003:1, Lund University, Department of Economics.
- G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
- G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
- G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2004-06-02 (All new papers)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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- Silvia Caserta & Jon Danielsson & Casper G. de Vries, 1998. "Abnormal Returns, Risk, and Options in Large Data Sets," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 98-107/2, Tinbergen Institute.
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