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Endogenous Stabilization in Open Democracies

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Author Info
David kiefer
Abstract

In the new Keynesian theory of endogenous stabilization governments react quickly to lean against the macroeconomic wind. In open economies policymaking is complicated by concern about the trade balance. We extend the political business cycle model by assuming that governments have objectives with respect to macroeconomic performance with respect three indicators (growth, inflation and the net exports), but are constrained by an augmented Phillips curve and the inverse relation between net exports and domestic output. As long as adaptive expectations replace rational ones, econometric tests support this characterization of the political-economic equilibrium, and suggest how it is conditioned by political ideology and central bank independence.

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Paper provided by University of Utah, Department of Economics in its series Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah with number 2006_01.

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Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:uta:papers:2006_01

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Related research
Keywords: Political business cycle; open economy; adaptive expectations;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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  1. Barro, Robert J & Gordon, David B, 1983. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural Rate Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 589-610, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Nordhaus, William D, 1975. "The Political Business Cycle," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(2), pages 169-90, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Gordon, Robert J, 1990. "What Is New-Keynesian Economics?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 28(3), pages 1115-71, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Chappell, Henry W, Jr, 1983. "Presidential Popularity and Macroeconomic Performance: Are Voters Really So Naive?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(3), pages 385-92, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Alesina, Alberto & Roubini, Nouriel, 1992. "Political Cycles in OECD Economies," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 59(4), pages 663-88, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Alesina, Alberto, 1987. "Macroeconomic Policy in a Two-Party System as a Repeated Game," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 102(3), pages 651-78, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Cukierman, Alex & Webb, Steven B & Neyapti, Bilin, 1992. "Measuring the Independence of Central Banks and Its Effect on Policy Outcomes," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 6(3), pages 353-98, September.
  8. Fischer, Stanley, 1977. "Long-Term Contracts, Rational Expectations, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(1), pages 191-205, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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