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Aging and Real Estate Prices:Evidence from Japanese and US Regional Data

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  • Yumi Saita
  • Chihiro Shimizu

    (Reitaku University and University of British Columbia)

  • Tsutomu Watanabe

    (Graduate School of Economics, University of Tokyo)

Abstract

In this paper, we empirically investigate how real estate prices are affected by aging. We run regional panel regressions for Japan and the United States. Our regression re- sults show that, both in Japan and the U.S., real estate prices in a region are inversely correlated with the old age dependency ratio, i.e. the ratio of population aged 65+ to population aged 20-64, in that region, and positively correlated with the total number of population in that region. The demographic factor had a greater impact on real estate prices in Japan than in the U.S. Based on the regression result for Japan and the pop- ulation forecast made by a government agency, we estimate the demographic impact on Japanese real estate prices over the next 30 years. We find that it will be -2.4 percent per year in 2012-2040 while it was -3.7 percent per year in 1976-2010, suggesting that aging will continue to have downward pressure on land prices over the next 30 years, although the demographic impact will be slightly smaller than it was in 1976-2010 as the old age dependency ratio will not increase as much as it did before.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics in its series UTokyo Price Project Working Paper Series with number 014.

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Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2013
Date of revision: Dec 2013
Handle: RePEc:upd:utppwp:014

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Postal: University of Tokyo 702 Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, 113-0033, Japan
Phone: +81-3-3812-2111
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Web page: http://www.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/
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Related research

Keywords: aging; dependency ratio; declining population; real estate prices;

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