An Econometric Model for Deforestation in Indonesia
AbstractThe aim of this paper is to develop an econometric model of deforestation in Indonesia using time series analysis based on the annual data from 1961 to 2000. From the model, we should be able: (i) To examine the forces of agricultural and timber sectors to forest decline; (ii) To distinguish the sources, direct and underlying causes of deforestation; and (iii) To identify macro-level economic factors that give pressures on deforestation. In order to achieve these purposes, a two-stage methods for the recursive system is chosen. The robustness of the estimation is checked to ensure there are no serial correlation and heteroskedasticity in all our equations. The main findings of model estimation show that, the forest product exports and the change in cereal cropland are the main sources of deforestation in Indonesia. Therefore, the factors determining the two sources become important to be taken into consideration. However, further examination on the underlying factors of deforestation in Indonesia are adversely affected by poor estimators given by the model.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University in its series Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) with number 200903.
Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2009
Date of revision: Jul 2009
Deforestation; econometric model; Indonesian forest;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- Q23 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Forestry
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AGR-2009-08-02 (Agricultural Economics)
- NEP-ALL-2009-08-02 (All new papers)
- NEP-ENV-2009-08-02 (Environmental Economics)
- NEP-SEA-2009-08-02 (South East Asia)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Haryo Aswicahyono, 2004. "Competitiveness and Efficiency of the Forest Product Industry in Indonesia," CSIS Economics Working Paper Series WPE075, Centre for Strategic and International Studies, Jakarta, Indonesia.
- David Wheeler, Robin Kraft, Dan Hammer, 2011. " Forest Clearing in the Pantropics: December 2005–August 2011- Working Paper 283," Working Papers 283, Center for Global Development.
- David Wheeler, Dan Hammer, Robin Kraft, 2011. " From REDD to Green: A Global Incentive System to Stop Tropical Forest Clearing- Working Paper 282," Working Papers 282, Center for Global Development.
- Dasgupta, Susmita & Hammer, Dan & Kraft, Robin & Wheeler, David, 2012. "Vyaghranomics in space and time : estimating habitat threats for Bengal, Indochinese, Malayan and Sumatran tigers," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6212, The World Bank.
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