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El déficit del Banco de Previsión Social y su impacto en las finanzas del gobierno uruguayo

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Author Info

  • Anna Caristo

    ()
    (Departmento de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Sociales, Universidad de la República)

  • Alvaro Forteza

    ()
    (Departmento de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Sociales, Universidad de la República)

Abstract

The Uruguayan pension system is one of the largest in Latin America relative to the country size. In 1995, the parliament passed a new pension law that introduced structural reforms in the system. The key goal of the reform was to restore intertemporal sustainability of the public budget, that was threatened by the steady growth of pension expenditure. The present paper summarizes some results from simulations designed to assess fiscal sustainability in the aftermath of the reform. In the base scenario, the deficit of the public pension program and the primary deficit of the government rise at the inception - the so-called transition deficit-, but reduce significantly in the medium to long run. Sensitivity analysis shows that the expected improvement in the control of evasion is a key variable in the projected reduction of the primary deficit.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics - dECON in its series Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) with number 0703.

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Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ude:wpaper:0703

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References

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  1. Alvaro Forteza, 1998. "Un modelo de simulación de la Reforma de la Seguridad Social en Uruguay," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 0598, Department of Economics - dECON.
  2. Alvaro Forteza, 2002. "Un modelo macroeconómico de simulación para el Banco de Previsión Social," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 1202, Department of Economics - dECON.
  3. Alvaro Forteza, 2003. "Seguridad social y competencia política," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 0403, Department of Economics - dECON.
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Cited by:
  1. Alvaro Forteza, 2004. "Uruguay, Options for Pensions Reform," Public Economics 0406002, EconWPA.
  2. Alvaro Forteza & Daniel Buquet & Mario Ibarburu & Jorge Lanzaro & Andrés Pereyra & Eduardo Siandra & Marcel Vaillant, 2003. "Understanding reform. The Uruguayan case," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 0603, Department of Economics - dECON.
  3. Alvaro Forteza, 2004. "Efectos distributivos de la reforma de la Seguridad Social, el caso Uruguayo," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 0104, Department of Economics - dECON.
  4. Alvaro Forteza, 2004. "Uruguay, Pensions and Fiscal Sustainability," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 0204, Department of Economics - dECON.

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