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Concession lenght and investment timing flexibility

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  • Chiara D'Alpaos
  • Cesare Dosi
  • Michele Moretto

Abstract

When assigning a concession contract, the regulator faces the issue of setting the concession length. Another key issue is whether or not the concessionare should be allowed to set the timing of new invest- ments. In this paper we investigate the impact of concession length and investment timing ?exibility on the ?concession value?. It is generally argued that long-term contracts are privately valuable as they enable a concessionaire to increase her overall discounted returns. Moreover, the real option theory suggests that investment ?exibility has an in- trinsic value, as it allows concessionaires to avoid costly errors. By combining these two conventional wisdoms, one may argue that long- term contracts, which allow for investment timing ?exibility, should always result in higher concession values. Our result suggests that this is not always the case. Firstly, investment ?exibility does not always increase the concession value. Secondly, long-term contracts do not necessarily increase the concession value.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Brescia, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number ubs0502.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:ubs:wpaper:ubs0502

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  1. McDonald, Robert & Siegel, Daniel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 101(4), pages 707-27, November.
  2. McDonald, Robert L & Siegel, Daniel R, 1985. "Investment and the Valuation of Firms When There Is an Option to Shut Down," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 26(2), pages 331-49, June.
  3. Michele Moretto & Chiara D’Alpaos, 2004. "The Value of Flexibility in the Italian Water Service Sector: A Real Option Analysis," Working Papers 2004.140, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  4. Cox, John C. & Ross, Stephen A., 1976. "The valuation of options for alternative stochastic processes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 145-166.
  5. repec:rne:rneart:v:1:y:2002:i:1:p:1-38 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Brennan, Michael J & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1985. "Evaluating Natural Resource Investments," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58(2), pages 135-57, April.
  7. Littlechild Stephen, 2002. "Competitive Bidding for a Long-Term Electricity Distribution Contract," Review of Network Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 1-38, March.
  8. Mauer, David C. & Ott, Steven H., 1995. "Investment under Uncertainty: The Case of Replacement Investment Decisions," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(04), pages 581-605, December.
  9. McDonald, Robert & Siegel, Daniel, 1984. " Option Pricing When the Underlying Asset Earns a Below-Equilibrium Rate of Return: A Note," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(1), pages 261-65, March.
  10. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
  11. Harrison, J. Michael & Kreps, David M., 1979. "Martingales and arbitrage in multiperiod securities markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 381-408, June.
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Cited by:
  1. Michele Moretto & Cesare Dosi, 2007. "Concession Bidding Rules and Investment Time Flexibility," Working Papers 2007.3, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  2. D'Alpaos, Chiara & Moretto, Michele & Valbonesi, Paola, 2006. "Time is Money: Optimal Investment Delay in Procurement (and Concession) Contracts," Conference Papers 6642, University of Minnesota, Center for International Food and Agricultural Policy.
  3. Coco, Giuseppe & De Vincenti, Claudio, 2008. "Optimal price-cap reviews," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 238-244, December.
  4. Pasquale L. Scandizzo & Marco Ventura, 2008. "A model of public and private partnership through concession contracts," ISAE Working Papers 104, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).

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