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Analyzing an Aging Population---A Dynamic General Equilibrium Approach---

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  • Shinichi Nishiyama

    (Congressional Budget Office)

Abstract

This paper shows the macroeconomic and welfare implications of an aging population in the United States, using an overlapping-generations model with heterogeneous households. The model uses three population projections in Social Security Administration (2003), and generates economies as equilibrium transition paths from 1961 to 2200. The paper demon-strates how several different population projections and government financing assumptions\ to make the Social Security system sustainable\affect householdsf decisions and welfare. One of the policy experiments shows that an immediate increase in the payroll tax may not improve the welfare of future generations as much as it reduces the welfare of current gener-ations.

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File URL: http://www.cirje.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/research/dp/2004/2004cf266.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo in its series CIRJE F-Series with number CIRJE-F-266.

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Length: 43 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:tky:fseres:2004cf266

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References

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  1. Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch & Larry Kotlikoff, 2003. "The Developed World's Demographic Transition - the Roles of Capital Flows, Immigration, and Policy," Boston University - Department of Economics - The Institute for Economic Development Working Papers Series dp-133, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  2. Shinichi Nishiyama, 2002. "Bequests, Inter Vivos Transfers, and Wealth Distribution," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(4), pages 892-931, October.
  3. Jagadeesh Gokhale & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & John Sabelhaus, 1996. "Understanding the Postwar Decline in U.S. Saving: A Cohort Analysis," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1), pages 315-407.
  4. Ríos-Rull José-Víctor, 2001. "Population Changes and Capital Accumulation: The Aging of the Baby Boom," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 1-48, May.
  5. repec:att:wimass:9722 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Jonathan A. Parker, 1999. "Consumption Over the Life Cycle," NBER Working Papers 7271, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Shinichi Nishiyama & Kent Smetters, 2003. "Consumption Taxes and Economic Efficiency in a Stochastic OLG Economy," NBER Working Papers 9492, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Douglas W. Elmendorf & Louise M. Sheiner, 2000. "Should America Save for Its Old Age? Fiscal Policy, Population Aging, and National Saving," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 57-74, Summer.
  9. John Laitner, 2003. "Labor Supply Responses to Social Security," Working Papers wp050, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
  10. Juan C. Conesa & Dirk Krueger, 1999. "Social Security Reform with Heterogeneous Agents," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(4), pages 757-795, October.
  11. Huggett, Mark, 1996. "Wealth distribution in life-cycle economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 469-494, December.
  12. Cutler, D.M. & Poterba, J.M. & Sheiner, L.M. & Summers, L.H., 1990. "An Aging Society: Opportunity Or Challenge," Working papers 553, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  13. Mark Huggett & Gustavo Ventura, 1999. "On the Distributional Effects of Social Security Reform," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(3), pages 498-531, July.
  14. repec:fth:harver:1490 is not listed on IDEAS
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Cited by:
  1. Shinichi Nishiyama & Kent Smetters, 2007. "Does Social Security Privatization Produce Efficiency Gains?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 122(4), pages 1677-1719, November.
  2. Shinichi Nishiyama & Kent Smetters, 2008. "The Optimal Design of Social Security Benefits," Working Papers wp197, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.

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