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Social Security Reform in an Economy with Population Aging

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  • Shinichi Nishiyama

Abstract

This paper analyzes the macroeconomic and welfare effects of population aging and Social Security reform. First, a stochastic overlapping-generations model with heterogeneous agents is carefully extended to an aging society. The model uses the intermediate population projection of the Trustee Report, and it generates baseline economies as equilibrium transition paths starting year 1961. Under this reasonable aging assumption, per capita labor supply will decrease in the long run, and per capita national wealth will increase compared to the balanced growth path, although the private saving rate will be declining. Then, the paper analyzes three stylized but realistic Social Security reform plans that cut benefits, increase the payroll tax cap, and introduce personal savings accounts with benefit offsets

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File URL: http://repec.org/esNAWM04/up.15324.1049238675.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Econometric Society in its series Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings with number 582.

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Date of creation: 11 Aug 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ecm:nawm04:582

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Keywords: Social Security; Overlapping Generations; Dynamic General Equilibrium;

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  1. Ríos-Rull José-Víctor, 2001. "Population Changes and Capital Accumulation: The Aging of the Baby Boom," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 1-48, May.
  2. repec:fth:harver:1490 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Mariacristina De Nardi & Selahattin Imrohoglu & Thomas J. Sargent, 1998. "Projected U.S. demographics and social security," Working Paper Series WP-98-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  4. Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Parker, Jonathan A, 2000. "Consumption Over the Life-Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 2345, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Shinichi Nishiyama & Kent Smetters, 2003. "Consumption Taxes and Economic Efficiency in a Stochastic OLG Economy," NBER Working Papers 9492, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. David M. Cutler & James M. Poterba & Louise M. Sheiner & Lawrence H. Summers, 1990. "An Aging Society: Opportunity or Challenge?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(1), pages 1-74.
  7. Hugett, M. & Ventura, G., 1997. "On the Distributional Effects of Social Security Reform," UWO Department of Economics Working Papers 9710, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics.
  8. Jagadeesh Gokhale & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & John Sabelhaus, 1996. "Understanding the Postwar Decline in U.S. Saving: A Cohort Analysis," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1), pages 315-407.
  9. Huggett, Mark, 1996. "Wealth distribution in life-cycle economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 469-494, December.
  10. Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch & Larry Kotlikoff, 2003. "The Developed World's Demographic Transition - the Roles of Capital Flows, Immigration, and Policy," Boston University - Department of Economics - The Institute for Economic Development Working Papers Series dp-133, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  11. Juan C. Conesa & Dirk Krueger, 1999. "Social Security Reform with Heterogeneous Agents," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(4), pages 757-795, October.
  12. Douglas W. Elmendorf & Louise M. Sheiner, 2000. "Should America Save for Its Old Age? Fiscal Policy, Population Aging, and National Saving," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 57-74, Summer.
  13. John Laitner, 2003. "Labor Supply Responses to Social Security," Working Papers wp050, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
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