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A Note on Learning under the Knightian Uncertainty

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  • Kiyohiko G. Nishimura

    (Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo)

  • Hiroyuki Ozaki

    (Faculty of Economics, Tohoku University)

Abstract

In contrast to the traditional model of uncertainty, where the uncertainty is characterized by a single distribution function that a decision maker faces, the Knightian-uncertainty approach characterizes it as a set of distributions rather than a single one. Hence, learning in the context of Knightian uncertainty is characterized by an update process of the set of distributions after each of random sampling. This note presents two examples in which the Dempster-Shafer update rule, the one which attracts much attention since it seems intuitive, does not at all reduce the Knightian uncertainty (Example 1) and it actually increases the Knightian uncertainty (Example 2). Thus, what is a sensible update process is still an open question under the Knightian uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Kiyohiko G. Nishimura & Hiroyuki Ozaki, 2001. "A Note on Learning under the Knightian Uncertainty," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-113, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
  • Handle: RePEc:tky:fseres:2001cf113
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Michael Rothschild, 1974. "Searching for the Lowest Price When the Distribution of Prices Is Unknown: A Summary," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 3, number 1, pages 293-294, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Rothschild, Michael, 1974. "Searching for the Lowest Price When the Distribution of Prices Is Unknown," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(4), pages 689-711, July/Aug..
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    Cited by:

    1. Kiyohiko G. Nishimura & Hiroyuki Ozaki, 2001. "Search under the Knightian Uncertainty," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-112, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.

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