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Economics of Self-Feeding Fear

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Author Info
Kiyohiko G. Nishimura (Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo)
Hiroyuki Ozaki (Faculty of Economics, Tohoku University)
Abstract

A model of self-feeding fear is presented. Suppose that an economic agent is (1-ƒÃ)~100% certain that uncertainty she faces is characterized by a particular probability measure, but that she has a fear that, with ƒÃ~100% chance, her conviction is completely wrong and she is left perfectly ignorant about the true measure in the present as well as in the future. We call this situation ƒÃ-contamination of confidence. In this situation, if the economic agent follows Bayesian procedure or its variant, which is considered as rational in the theory of economics, her confidence erodes after having new observation.

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Paper provided by CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo in its series CIRJE F-Series with number CIRJE-F-175.

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Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2002
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Handle: RePEc:tky:fseres:2002cf175

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  3. Epstein Larry G. & Le Breton Michel, 1993. "Dynamically Consistent Beliefs Must Be Bayesian," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 1-22, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Gilboa, Itzhak & Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Maxmin expected utility with non-unique prior," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 141-153, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Larry G. Epstein & Martin Schneider, 2001. "Recursive Multiple-Priors," RCER Working Papers 485, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER). [Downloadable!]
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  6. Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Subjective Probability and Expected Utility without Additivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(3), pages 571-87, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Ghirardato, Paolo & Marinacci, Massimo, 2002. "Ambiguity Made Precise: A Comparative Foundation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 251-289, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Ghirardato, Paolo, 1995. "On Independence For Non-Additive Measures, With a Fubini Theorem," Working Papers 940, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences. [Downloadable!]
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  1. Kiyohiko G. Nishimura & Hiroyuki Ozaki, 2002. "Irreversible Investment and Knightian Uncertainty," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-176, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo. [Downloadable!]
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