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Economics of Self-Feeding Fear

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  • Kiyohiko G. Nishimura

    (Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo)

  • Hiroyuki Ozaki

    (Faculty of Economics, Tohoku University)

Abstract

A model of self-feeding fear is presented. Suppose that an economic agent is (1-ƒÃ)x100% certain that uncertainty she faces is characterized by a particular probability measure, but that she has a fear that, with ƒÃx100% chance, her conviction is completely wrong and she is left perfectly ignorant about the true measure in the present as well as in the future. We call this situation ƒÃ-contamination of confidence. In this situation, if the economic agent follows Bayesian procedure or its variant, which is considered as rational in the theory of economics, her confidence erodes after having new observation.

Suggested Citation

  • Kiyohiko G. Nishimura & Hiroyuki Ozaki, 2002. "Economics of Self-Feeding Fear," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-175, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    • Handle: RePEc:tky:fseres:2002cf175
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    File URL: http://www.cirje.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/research/dp/2002/2002cf175.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gilboa Itzhak & Schmeidler David, 1993. "Updating Ambiguous Beliefs," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 33-49, February.
    2. Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Subjective Probability and Expected Utility without Additivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(3), pages 571-587, May.
    3. Michael Rothschild, 1974. "Searching for the Lowest Price When the Distribution of Prices Is Unknown: A Summary," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 3, number 1, pages 293-294, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Gilboa, Itzhak & Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Maxmin expected utility with non-unique prior," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 141-153, April.
    5. Rothschild, Michael, 1974. "Searching for the Lowest Price When the Distribution of Prices Is Unknown," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(4), pages 689-711, July/Aug..
    6. Ghirardato, Paolo, 1997. "On Independence for Non-Additive Measures, with a Fubini Theorem," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 261-291, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kiyohiko G. Nishimura & Makoto Saito, 2003. "On Alternatives to Aggressive Demand Policies to Revitalize the Japanese Economy," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 2(3), pages 87-126.
    2. Takao Asano, 2010. "Portfolio Inertia and Epsilon-Contaminations," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 68(3), pages 341-365, March.

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