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Wealth, Volume and Stock Market Volatility: Case of Hong Kong (1993-2001)

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  • Matthew C. Li
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    Abstract

    This paper attempts to answer the question of whether the gain and loss in property market speculations and rate of information flow play a significant role in stock market volatility in Hong Kong. To test for our wealth-volume-volatility hypothesis, two different measures of volatility: Absolute (absolute value of standard deviation from mean with monthly dimension) and conditional (EGARCH) are used and results are compared. In both measures we find evidence of a positive wealth effect on stock market volatility, in particular in the investment of upper luxury class of property in Hong Kong. To account for this result, we apply the newly developed conditional confidence theory. Although we fail to establish a volume-volatility relationship in our estimation, we offer additional dimensions to the explanation of our observation.

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    File URL: http://www.tcd.ie/Economics/TEP/2003_papers/tepno5ML23.PDF
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics in its series Trinity Economics Papers with number 20035.

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    Date of creation: 2003
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    Handle: RePEc:tcd:tcduee:20035

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    1. Schwert, G William, 1990. "Stock Volatility and the Crash of '87," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 77-102.
    2. Richard H. Thaler & Eric J. Johnson, 1990. "Gambling with the House Money and Trying to Break Even: The Effects of Prior Outcomes on Risky Choice," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 36(6), pages 643-660, June.
    3. Shiller, Robert J., 1999. "Human behavior and the efficiency of the financial system," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 20, pages 1305-1340 Elsevier.
    4. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
    5. Karpoff, Jonathan M, 1986. " A Theory of Trading Volume," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(5), pages 1069-87, December.
    6. Amos Tversky & Daniel Kahneman, 1979. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk," Levine's Working Paper Archive 7656, David K. Levine.
    7. Terrance Odean, 1999. "Do Investors Trade Too Much?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(5), pages 1279-1298, December.
    8. Schwert, G William, 1989. " Why Does Stock Market Volatility Change over Time?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(5), pages 1115-53, December.
    9. Terrance Odean, 1998. "Are Investors Reluctant to Realize Their Losses?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(5), pages 1775-1798, October.
    10. So, Mike K P & Li, W K & Lam, K, 2002. "A Threshold Stochastic Volatility Model," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(7), pages 473-500, November.
    11. Karpoff, Jonathan M., 1987. "The Relation between Price Changes and Trading Volume: A Survey," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(01), pages 109-126, March.
    12. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
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