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Ramazan Ayinin Uretim Uzerindeki Etkisi

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  • Aslihan Atabek Demirhan

Abstract

Iktisadi degiskenlerde gozlenen mevsimsel hareketler serilerin ana egilimini takip etmeyi zorlastirmaktadir. Her yilin ayni doneminde tekrar eden hareketleri ifade eden duzenli mevsimselligin yani sira, Hicri takvime bagli dini bayramlarin her yil farkli bir doneme denk gelmesini ifade eden hareketli tatil (moving holiday) kavrami, calisma gunu uzerindeki etkisi baglaminda iktisadi veri analizinde onemli yer tutmaktadir. Is gunu sayisini dikkate alan ekonometrik yontemler, iktisadi faaliyete iliskin gostergelerdeki takvim etkilerini ayristirmayi mumkun kilmaktadir. Bu noktada, tuketim aliskanliklarinin gecici de olsa uzun sureli bir degisime ugradigi Ramazan ayi ozel bir yer tutmaktadir. Gerek talep kaynakli gerekse calisma saatleri baglaminda uretim davranisinin degisebildigi bu donemin, iktisadi faaliyette mevsim ve takvim etkilerinin otesinde gecici dalgalanmalara neden olabilecegi dusunulmektedir. Buradan hareketle bu calismada, Ramazan ayinin ve takip eden ayin sanayi uretimi uzerindeki etkisinin olculmesi amaclanmaktadir. Ekonometrik bulgular, anilan etkinin istatistiksel olarak anlamli olduguna isaret etmektedir.

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Paper provided by Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey in its series CBT Research Notes in Economics with number 1014.

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Date of creation: 2010
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Handle: RePEc:tcb:econot:1014

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  1. C.Emre Alper & S.Boragan Aruoba, 2001. "Deseasonalizing Macroeconomic Data: A Caveat to Applied Researchers in Turkey," Istanbul Stock Exchange Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 5(18), pages 33-52.
  2. Victor Gómez & Agustín Maravall, 1996. "Programs TRAMO and SEATS, Instruction for User (Beta Version: september 1996)," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 9628, Banco de Espa�a.
  3. Alper C. Emre & Aruoba S. Boragan, 2004. "Moving Holidays and Seasonal Adjustment: The Case of Turkey," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 2(3), pages 44-50, December.
  4. Victor Gómez & Agustín Maravall, 1996. "Programs TRAMO and SEATS, Instruction for User (Beta Version: september 1996)," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 9628, Banco de Espa�a.
  5. Aslihan Atabek & Oguz Atuk & Evren Erdogan Cosar & Cagri Sarikaya, 2009. "Mevsimsel Modellerde Calisma Gunu Degiskeni," CBT Research Notes in Economics 0903, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
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