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The fertility transition in South Africa: A retrospective panel data analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Laura Rossouw

    (Department of Economics, University of Stellenbosch)

  • Rulof Burger

    (Department of Economics, University of Stellenbosch)

  • Ronelle Burger

    (Department of Economics, University of Stellenbosch)

Abstract

Since 1960 South Africa has seen a steep fall in fertility levels and currently the total fertility rate is the lowest on the African continent. Given the high prevailing levels of fertility in African countries, a better understanding of the factors behind the fertility transition can be valuable not only for South Africa, but also more widely for other African countries. This paper uses the National Income Dynamics Study data to construct a retrospective panel to investigate reasons for the decline in fertility in South Africa since the 1960s. The analysis attributes a large share of the observed fertility decline across birth cohorts to improving education levels and the lower prevalence of marriage. However, a considerable segment of the transition is ascribed to the unobservables. This may include HIV/AIDS, the increased use of contraceptives and changes in intra-household relationships and the social role of women.

Suggested Citation

  • Laura Rossouw & Rulof Burger & Ronelle Burger, 2012. "The fertility transition in South Africa: A retrospective panel data analysis," Working Papers 03/2012, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics, revised 2012.
    • Handle: RePEc:sza:wpaper:wpapers155
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Olusegun Sunday Ewemooje & Elizabeth Biney & Acheampong Yaw Amoateng, 2020. "Determinants of fertility intentions among women of reproductive age in South Africa: evidence from the 2016 demographic and health survey," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 37(3), pages 265-289, September.
    2. J. Fourie, 2018. "Cliometrics in South Africa," Studies in Economics and Econometrics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(2), pages 1-14, August.
    3. Guadalupe Aguilera & Kim Korinek, 2020. "Immigrant Fertility in Comparative Perspective: South Africa and the United States," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 57(1), pages 297-322, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    South Africa; fertility; education; marriage; social norms;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J12 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Marriage; Marital Dissolution; Family Structure

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