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The importance of volatility in inflow in a deregulated hydro-dominated power market

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  • Torstein Bye
  • Annegrete Bruvoll
  • Finn Roar Aune

    ()
    (Statistics Norway)

Abstract

In 2002/2003, the Nordic hydro-dominated power market faced a short-term supply shock. In autumn, precipitation and inflow were unusually low. As a result, there were record high prices in the following winter. Questions were raised whether the deregulated market creates sufficient incentives to invest in new production and transmission capacity to secure supply when overall inflow fails. One fear is that the market could break down when precipitation and inflow fails during the whole year, which is more probable than a short-term extreme inflow failure. We apply a market model to simulate the market effects with two events: i) an overall inflow shortage 25 per cent lower than normal, and ii) a seasonally biased inflow shortage, as happened in 2002/03. The 25 per cent low inflow scenario shows that significantly higher price effects are likely to occur in the Nordic power market in the future than in the past. However, the price effects are less than one would expect when compared to 2002/03, but prices remain higher for a longer period of time. The simulations do not indicate any problems in the functioning of the market within these scenarios.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Research Department of Statistics Norway in its series Discussion Papers with number 472.

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Date of creation: Sep 2006
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Handle: RePEc:ssb:dispap:472

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Keywords: Volatile power markets; deregulated power markets; security of supply;

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  1. M. Pollitt, 2004. "Electricity reform in Chile. Lessons for developing countries," Competition and Regulation in Network Industries, Intersentia, vol. 5(3), pages 221-263, September.
  2. Severin Borenstein & James Bushnell & Christopher R. Knittel, 1999. "Market Power in Electricity Markets: Beyond Concentration Measures," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 65-88.
  3. Severin Borenstein & James Bushnell & Steven Stoft, 1997. "The Competitive Effects of Transmission Capacity in a Deregulated Electricity Industry," NBER Working Papers 6293, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Severin Borenstein & James B. Bushnell & Frank A. Wolak, 2002. "Measuring Market Inefficiencies in California's Restructured Wholesale Electricity Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1376-1405, December.
  5. Jason P. Martinek & Michael J. Orlando, 2002. "Neither Lucky Nor Good - The Case of Electricity Deregulation in California," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 33(1), pages 75-82.
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