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Russian Natural Gas Exports to Europe. Effects of Russian gas market reforms and the rising market power of Gazprom

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Author Info
Eirik Lund Sagen and Marina Tsygankova (Statistics Norway)

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Abstract

Gazprom, the dominant gas company in Russia, is widely believed to be the key supplier of gas to Europe in the foreseeable future. However, there are numerous uncertainties and challenges within the Russian and European gas industry that may alter the allocation of Gazprom´s gas sales between domestic and export markets. In this paper we use both theoretical and numerical models to study potential effects on Russian gas exports from changes in Russian domestic gas prices and the production capacities in 2015. We also investigate whether the liberalization of the European gas markets may provide incentives for Gazprom to induce monopoly power in its export markets. Our main findings suggest that both increased domestic gas prices and sufficient production capacities are vital to maintain Gazprom´s market share in Europe over the next decade. At low domestic prices, Gazprom may even have difficulties to carry out its long-term export commitments. However, if export possibilities are ample due to both lower domestic demand at higher prices and high overall production capacities, a large share of spot trades in Europe may encourage Gazprom to exercise market power in its export markets.

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Paper provided by Research Department of Statistics Norway in its series Discussion Papers with number 445.

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Date of creation: Feb 2006
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Handle: RePEc:ssb:dispap:445

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Related research
Keywords: Russia; Natural gas; production capacity; export; Western Europe; price; numerical model;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
D42 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure and Pricing - - - Monopoly
Q31 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply
Q38 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Government Policy (includes OPEC Policy)

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. D. Finon & Catherine Locatelli, 2002. "The liberalisation of the European gas market and its consequences for Russia," Post-Print halshs-00177828_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
  2. Krichene, Noureddine, 2002. "World crude oil and natural gas: a demand and supply model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 557-576, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. David G. Tarr & Peter D. Thomson, 2004. "The Merits of Dual Pricing of Russian Natural Gas," The World Economy, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(8), pages 1173-1194, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Holtsmark, Bjart & Maestad, Ottar, 2002. "Emission trading under the Kyoto Protocol--effects on fossil fuel markets under alternative regimes," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 207-218, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Mohammed A. Al-Sahlawi, 1989. "The Demand for Natural Gas: A Survey of Price and Income Elasticities," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 10(1), pages 77-90.
  6. Dominique Finon & Catherine Locatelli, 2002. "The liberalisation of the European gas market and its consequences for Russia," Post-Print halshs-00187059_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
  7. Quast, Oliver & Locatelli, Catherine, 1997. "Russian natural gas policy and its possible effects on European gas markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 125-133, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Catherine Locatelli, 2003. "The viability of deregulation in the russian gas industry," Post-Print halshs-00001308_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Catherine Locatelli, 2008. "Gazprom’s export strategies under the institutional constraint of the Russian gas market," Post-Print halshs-00341660_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
  2. Knut Einar Rosendahl and Eirik Lund Sagen, 2007. "The Global Natural Gas Market. Will transport cost reductions lead to lower prices?," Discussion Papers 523, Research Department of Statistics Norway. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Marina Tsygankova, 2007. "The export of Russian gas to Europe: breaking up the monopoly of Gazprom," Discussion Papers 494, Research Department of Statistics Norway. [Downloadable!]
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