Which Model for the Italian Interest Rates?
AbstractIn the recent years, di usion models for interest rates became very pop- ular. In this paper, we try to do a selection of a suitable di usion model for the Italian interest rates. Our data set is given by the yields on three-month BOT, from 1981 to 2001, for a total of 470 observations. We investigate among stochastic volatility models, paying more attention to a ne models. Estimating di usion models via maximum likelihood,which would lead to e ciency, is usually unfeasible since the transition density is not available. Recently it has been proposed a method of mo- ments which gains full e ciency, hence its name of E cient Method of Moments (EMM); it selects the moments as the scores of an auxiliary model, to be computed via simulation,thus EMM is suitable to di usions whose transition density is un- known, but which are convenient to simulate. The auxiliary model is selected among a family of densities which spans the density space. As a by-product, EMM provides diagnostics which are easy to compute and to interpret. We nd evidence that one- factor models are rejected, while a logarithmic speci cation of the volatility provides the best t to the data, in agreement with the ndings on U.S. data. Moreover, we provide evidence that this model allows a more exible representation of the yield curve.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy in its series LEM Papers Series with number 2002/02.
Date of creation: 06 Dec 2002
Date of revision:
Estimation by simulation; method of moments; stochastic differential equations; diffusions; interest rate term structure; yield curve.;
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2002-08-16 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2002-08-16 (Central Banking)
- NEP-FIN-2002-08-16 (Finance)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Ait-Sahalia, Yacine, 1996.
"Testing Continuous-Time Models of the Spot Interest Rate,"
Review of Financial Studies,
Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(2), pages 385-426.
- Yacine Ait-Sahalia, 1995. "Testing Continuous-Time Models of the Spot Interest Rate," NBER Working Papers 5346, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gallant, A. Ronald & Tauchen, George, 2002. "Efficient Method of Moments," Working Papers 02-06, Duke University, Department of Economics.
- Dong-Hyun Ahn & Robert F. Dittmar, 2002. "Quadratic Term Structure Models: Theory and Evidence," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(1), pages 243-288, March.
- Conley, Timothy G, et al, 1997. "Short-Term Interest Rates as Subordinated Diffusions," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(3), pages 525-77.
- Bansal, Ravi & Gallant, A. Ronald & Hussey, Robert & Tauchen, George, 1995. "Nonparametric estimation of structural models for high-frequency currency market data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 251-287.
- Romulo Chumacero, .
"Finite Sample Properties of the Efficient Method of Moments,"
Computing in Economics and Finance 1997
5, Society for Computational Economics.
- Chumacero Rómulo A., 1997. "Finite Sample Properties of the Efficient Method of Moments," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 2(2), pages 1-19, July.
- Gregory R. Duffee, 2002. "Term Premia and Interest Rate Forecasts in Affine Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 405-443, 02.
- David A. Chapman & Neil D. Pearson, 1998.
"Is the Short Rate Drift Actually Nonlinear?,"
- Chan, K C, et al, 1992.
" An Empirical Comparison of Alternative Models of the Short-Term Interest Rate,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 47(3), pages 1209-27, July.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate CKLS(1992) estimation of interest rate models," Statistical Software Components RTZ00035, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Chernov, Mikhail & Ronald Gallant, A. & Ghysels, Eric & Tauchen, George, 2003.
"Alternative models for stock price dynamics,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 116(1-2), pages 225-257.
- Chernov, Mikhail & Gallant, A. Ronald & Ghysels, Eric & Tauchen, George, 2002. "Alternative Models for Stock Price Dynamic," Working Papers 02-03, Duke University, Department of Economics.
- Mikhail Chernov & A. Ronald Gallant & Eric Ghysels & George Tauchen, 2002. "Alternative Models for Stock Price Dynamics," CIRANO Working Papers 2002s-58, CIRANO.
- Pierluigi Balduzzi & Edwin J. Elton & T. Clifton Green, 1997.
"Economic News and the Yield Curve: Evidence from the U.S. Treasury Market,"
New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires
98-005, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
- Pierluigi Balduzzi & Edwin J. Elton & T. Clifton Green, 1996. "Economic News and the Yield Curve: Evidence From the U.S. Treasury Market," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 96-13, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
- Andersen, Torben G. & Chung, Hyung-Jin & Sorensen, Bent E., 1999. "Efficient method of moments estimation of a stochastic volatility model: A Monte Carlo study," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 61-87, July.
- Andersen, Torben G. & Lund, Jesper, 1997. "Estimating continuous-time stochastic volatility models of the short-term interest rate," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 343-377, April.
- Drost, Feike C. & Werker, Bas J. M., 1996. "Closing the GARCH gap: Continuous time GARCH modeling," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 31-57, September.
- Ravi Bansal & Hao Zhou, 2002.
"Term Structure of Interest Rates with Regime Shifts,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 1997-2043, October.
- Ravi Bansal & Hao Zhou, 2001. "Term structure of interest rates with regime shifts," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-46, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Chernov, Mikhail & Ghysels, Eric, 2000. "A study towards a unified approach to the joint estimation of objective and risk neutral measures for the purpose of options valuation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 407-458, June.
- Mari, Carlo & Reno, Roberto, 2005. "Credit risk analysis of mortgage loans: An application to the Italian market," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 163(1), pages 83-93, May.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.