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The Special Status of Mathematical Probability: A Historical Sketch

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Author Info
Xavier De Scheemaekere () (Centre Emile Bernheim, Solvay Business School, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels.)
Ariane Szafarz () (Centre Emile Bernheim, Solvay Business School, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels and DULBEA, Université Libre de Bruxelles)

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Abstract

The history of the mathematical probability includes two phases: 1) From Pascal and Fermat to Laplace, the theory gained in application fields; 2) In the first half of the 20th Century, two competing axiomatic systems were respectively proposed by von Mises in 1919 and Kolmogorov in 1933. This paper places this historical sketch in the context of the philosophical complexity of the probability concept and explains the resounding success of Kolmogorov’s theory through its ability to avoid direct interpretation. Indeed, unlike experimental sciences, and despite its numerous applications, probability theory cannot be tested per se. Rather it relates to practical matters by means of transition hypotheses or bridging principles that match the structure of practical problems with abstract theory. In this respect probability theory has a very special status among scientific disciplines.

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File URL: http://www.solvay.edu/EN/Research/Bernheim/documents/wp08017.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function: First version, 2008
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Université Libre de Bruxelles, Solvay Brussels School of Economics and Management, Centre Emile Bernheim (CEB) in its series Working Papers CEB with number 08-017.RS.

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Length: 15 pages
Date of creation: May 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:sol:wpaper:08-017

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Related research
Keywords: probability; Kolmogorov; von Mises; axioms; epistemology;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
B41 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - Economic Methodology
B16 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought through 1925 - - - Quantitative and Mathematical
B23 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Quantitative and Mathematical
C00 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - General

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