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Demand Forecasting in the Early Stage of the Technology's Life Cycle Using Bayesian update

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  • Chul-Yong Lee
  • Jongsu Lee

    ()
    (Technology Management, Economics and Policy Program(TEMEP), Seoul National University)

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    Abstract

    Forecasting demand for new technology for which few historical data observations are available is difficult but essential to successful marketing. The current study suggests an alternative forecasting methodology based on a hazard rate model using stated and revealed preferences. In estimating the hazard rate, information is derived initially through conjoint analysis based on a consumer survey and then updated using Bayes¡¯ theorem with available market data. Based on the results of the empirical analysis, the model described here can significantly improve demand forecasting for newly introduced technologies.

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    File URL: ftp://147.46.237.98/DP-03.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2009
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Seoul National University; Technology Management, Economics, and Policy Program (TEMEP) in its series TEMEP Discussion Papers with number 200903.

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    Length: 20 pages
    Date of creation: Apr 2009
    Date of revision: Apr 2009
    Handle: RePEc:snv:dp2009:200903

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    Keywords: demand forecasting; conjoint analysis; Bayesian update; telematics service;

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    1. Yunhee Kim & Jeong-Dong Lee & Almas Heshmati, 2009. "Analysis of Pay Inequality and its Impacts on Growth and Performance in the Korean Manufacturing Industry," TEMEP Discussion Papers, Seoul National University; Technology Management, Economics, and Policy Program (TEMEP) 200902, Seoul National University; Technology Management, Economics, and Policy Program (TEMEP), revised Jan 2009.
    2. John Calfee & Clifford Winston & Randolph Stempski, 2001. "Econometric Issues In Estimating Consumer Preferences From Stated Preference Data: A Case Study Of The Value Of Automobile Travel Time," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(4), pages 699-707, November.
    3. Tai-Yoo Kim & Almas Heshmati & Jihyun Park, 2009. "Perspectives on the Decelerating Agricultural society," TEMEP Discussion Papers, Seoul National University; Technology Management, Economics, and Policy Program (TEMEP) 200901, Seoul National University; Technology Management, Economics, and Policy Program (TEMEP), revised Jan 2009.
    4. Hannan, Timothy H & McDowell, John M, 1987. "Rival Precedence and the Dynamics of Technology Adoption: An Empirical Analysis," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 54(214), pages 155-71, May.
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