IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/snb/snbwpa/2020-01.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The impact of SNB monetary policy on the Swiss franc and longer-term interest rates

Author

Listed:
  • Dr. Fabian Fink
  • Dr. Lukas Frei
  • Dr. Thomas Maag
  • Dr. Tanja Zehnder

Abstract

We estimate the impact of monetary policy rate changes made by the Swiss National Bank on the Swiss franc and on the expected path of future short-term interest rates. We employ an identification-through-heteroskedasticity approach to identify the causal effects. The approach accounts for the simultaneous relation of exchange rates and interest rates. We find that from 2000-2011, an unexpected policy rate hike appreciated the nominal Swiss franc on the same day. The null hypothesis that a policy rate change does not affect the Swiss exchange rates is clearly rejected. Importantly, the results indicate that simple methods that do not adequately account for simultaneity yield biased and typically nonsignificant estimates. Our findings further suggest that policy rate changes affect medium- to longer-term expectations about the stance of monetary policy, which in turn influence the Swiss franc.

Suggested Citation

  • Dr. Fabian Fink & Dr. Lukas Frei & Dr. Thomas Maag & Dr. Tanja Zehnder, 2020. "The impact of SNB monetary policy on the Swiss franc and longer-term interest rates," Working Papers 2020-01, Swiss National Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:snb:snbwpa:2020-01
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/research/working-papers/2020/working_paper_2020_01
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christian Grisse & Silvio Schumacher, 2018. "Term structure dynamics at low and negative interest rates—evidence from Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 154(1), pages 1-17, December.
    2. Ferrari, Massimo & Kearns, Jonathan & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2021. "Monetary policy’s rising FX impact in the era of ultra-low rates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    3. Ranaldo, Angelo & Rossi, Enzo, 2010. "The reaction of asset markets to Swiss National Bank communication," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 486-503, April.
    4. Rigobon, Roberto & Sack, Brian, 2004. "The impact of monetary policy on asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 1553-1575, November.
    5. Adrian, Tobias & Crump, Richard K. & Moench, Emanuel, 2013. "Pricing the term structure with linear regressions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(1), pages 110-138.
    6. Nitschka Thomas & Markov Nikolay, 2016. "Semi-Parametric Estimates of Taylor Rules for a Small, Open Economy – Evidence from Switzerland," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 17(4), pages 478-490, December.
    7. Rosa, Carlo, 2011. "The high-frequency response of exchange rates to monetary policy actions and statements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 478-489, February.
    8. Kerssenfischer, Mark, 2019. "Information effects of euro area monetary policy: New evidence from high-frequency futures data," Discussion Papers 07/2019, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    9. Jonathan Kearns & Phil Manners, 2006. "The Impact of Monetary Policy on the Exchange Rate: A Study Using Intraday Data," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(4), December.
    10. Fabio Canetg & Daniel Kaufmann, 2019. "Shocking Interest Rate Floors," Diskussionsschriften dp1901, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
    11. Prof. Dr. Carlos Lenz & Marcel R. Savioz, 2009. "Monetary determinants of the Swiss franc," Working Papers 2009-16, Swiss National Bank.
    12. Dr. Nicolas Alexis Cuche-Curti & Harris Dellas & Jean-Marc Natal, 2009. "A dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for Switzerland," Economic Studies 2009-05, Swiss National Bank.
    13. Kugler, Peter, 2020. "The Short-Run Impact of Interest Rates on Exchange Rates: Results for the Swiss franc Against the Euro and US Dollar from Daily Data 2001-2011," Working papers 2020/01, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.
    14. Roberto Rigobon, 2003. "Identification Through Heteroskedasticity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 777-792, November.
    15. Dr. Christian Grisse, 2020. "The effect of monetary policy on the Swiss franc: an SVAR approach," Working Papers 2020-02, Swiss National Bank.
    16. Kugler, Peter, 2020. "The Short-Run Impact of SNB Sight Deposits on Exchange Rates: Results from Weekly Data 2015 - 2018," Working papers 2020/04, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.
    17. Dr. Barbara Rudolf & Mathias Zurlinden, 2014. "A compact open economy DSGE model for Switzerland," Economic Studies 2014-08, Swiss National Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Peter Kugler & Dr. Samuel Reynard, 2020. "Money, inflation and the financial crisis: the case of Switzerland," Working Papers 2020-16, Swiss National Bank.
    2. Dr. Romain Baeriswyl & Dr. Lucas Marc Fuhrer & Dr. Petra Gerlach & Dr. Jörn Tenhofen, 2021. "The dynamics of bank rates in a negative-rate environment - the Swiss case," Working Papers 2021-05, Swiss National Bank.
    3. Dr. Christian Grisse, 2020. "The effect of monetary policy on the Swiss franc: an SVAR approach," Working Papers 2020-02, Swiss National Bank.
    4. Kugler, Peter, 2020. "The Short-Run Impact of Interest Rates on Exchange Rates: Results for the Swiss franc Against the Euro and US Dollar from Daily Data 2001-2011," Working papers 2020/01, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.
    5. In Do Hwang & Dr. Enzo Rossi, 2020. "Does communication influence executives' opinion of central bank policy?," Working Papers 2020-17, Swiss National Bank.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dr. Christian Grisse, 2020. "The effect of monetary policy on the Swiss franc: an SVAR approach," Working Papers 2020-02, Swiss National Bank.
    2. Kugler, Peter, 2020. "The Short-Run Impact of Interest Rates on Exchange Rates: Results for the Swiss franc Against the Euro and US Dollar from Daily Data 2001-2011," Working papers 2020/01, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.
    3. Nihar Shah, 2022. "Doubly heterogeneous monetary spillovers," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 126-150, August.
    4. Ferrari, Massimo & Kearns, Jonathan & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2021. "Monetary policy’s rising FX impact in the era of ultra-low rates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    5. Bu, Chunya & Rogers, John & Wu, Wenbin, 2021. "A unified measure of Fed monetary policy shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 331-349.
    6. Chen, Zhengyang, 2019. "The Long-term Rate and Interest Rate Volatility in Monetary Policy Transmission," EconStor Preprints 204579, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    7. Xinsheng Lu & Ling Qu & Ying Zhou, 2015. "The Impact of Monetary Surprises on Australian Financial Futures Markets: An Insight into Cash Rate Target Announcements," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(3), pages 151-166, September.
    8. Xinsheng Lu & Ying Zhou & Mingting Kou, 2013. "The Impact of Monetary Policy Surprises on Australian Financial Futures Markets," Working Papers 2013-01, Auckland University of Technology, Department of Economics.
    9. Oliver Holtemöller & Alexander Kriwoluzky & Boreum Kwak, 2020. "Exchange Rates and the Information Channel of Monetary Policy," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1906, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    10. Jung, Alexander & Uhlig, Harald, 2019. "Monetary policy shocks and the health of banks," Working Paper Series 2303, European Central Bank.
    11. Abrahams, Michael & Adrian, Tobias & Crump, Richard K. & Moench, Emanuel & Yu, Rui, 2016. "Decomposing real and nominal yield curves," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 182-200.
    12. Marcello Pericoli & Giovanni Veronese, 2018. "Monetary Policy Surprises over Time," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(01), pages 1-60, March.
    13. Franz, Thorsten, 2020. "Central bank information shocks and exchange rates," Discussion Papers 13/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    14. Jung, Alexander, 2023. "Are monetary policy shocks causal to bank health? Evidence from the euro area," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    15. Alexander Jung & Patrick Kuehl, 2021. "Can central bank communication help to stabilise inflation expectations?," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(3), pages 298-321, July.
    16. Canetg, Fabio & Kaufmann, Daniel, 2022. "Overnight rate and signalling effects of central bank bills," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    17. Carlo Rosa, 2012. "How "unconventional" are large-scale asset purchases? The impact of monetary policy on asset prices," Staff Reports 560, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    18. Dr. Gregor Bäurle & Daniel Kaufmann, 2014. "Exchange rate and price dynamics in a small open economy - the role of the zero lower bound and monetary policy regimes," Working Papers 2014-10, Swiss National Bank.
    19. Gerardo Manzo & Antonio Picca, 2020. "The Impact of Sovereign Shocks," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(7), pages 3113-3132, July.
    20. Demir, İshak, 2014. "Monetary policy responses to the exchange rate: Empirical evidence from the ECB," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 63-70.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy shocks; interest rates; exchange rates; identification-through-heteroskedasticity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:snb:snbwpa:2020-01. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Enzo Rossi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/snbgvch.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.