IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/sek/iacpro/5306868.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Public debt sustainability and economic growth in Malaysia: Threshold and causality analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Qaiser Munir

    (Faculty of Business, Economics and Accountancy, Universiti Malaysia Sabah)

  • Sook Ching Kok

    (Faculty of Business, Economics and Accountancy, Universiti Malaysia Sabah)

  • Winnie Abdulnasir

    (Faculty of Business, Economics and Accountancy, Universiti Malaysia Sabah)

Abstract

The 2008 financial crisis has led to an unprecedented increase in public debt across the world, raising serious concerns about its economic impact. This paper investigates the impact of public debt on long-run GDP growth in Malaysia from the year 1970 to 2013. We employ novel methods and diagnostics from the time-series literature, such as threshold regression approach suggested by Hansen (2000), causality test and cointegration test. The empirical results suggest an inverse relationship between debt and GDP growth, controlling for other determinants of growth. Further, our results suggest that there is strong evidence of causality from growth to public debt. In addition, threshold effect and nonlinearity between debt-growth is examined. We found a non-linear impact of public debt on GDP growth with a turning point?beyond which the public debt-to-GDP ratio has a deleterious impact on long-term growth?at about 50-60% of GDP.

Suggested Citation

  • Qaiser Munir & Sook Ching Kok & Winnie Abdulnasir, 2016. "Public debt sustainability and economic growth in Malaysia: Threshold and causality analysis," Proceedings of International Academic Conferences 5306868, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    • Handle: RePEc:sek:iacpro:5306868
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://iises.net/proceedings/27th-international-academic-conference-prague/table-of-content/detail?cid=53&iid=031&rid=6868
    File Function: First version, 2016
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Panizza, Ugo & Presbitero, Andrea F., 2014. "Public debt and economic growth: Is there a causal effect?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 21-41.
    2. Balázs Égert, 2015. "Public debt, economic growth and nonlinear effects: Myth or reality?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 226-238.
    3. Eberhardt, Markus & Presbitero, Andrea F., 2015. "Public debt and growth: Heterogeneity and non-linearity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 45-58.
    4. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 573-578, May.
    5. Carmen M. Reinhart & Vincent R. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2012. "Public Debt Overhangs: Advanced-Economy Episodes since 1800," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 69-86, Summer.
    6. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    7. Sen, Amit, 2003. "On Unit-Root Tests When the Alternative Is a Trend-Break Stationary Process," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(1), pages 174-184, January.
    8. Ryo Arawatari & Tetsuo Ono, 2017. "Inequality and public debt: A positive analysis," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(5), pages 1155-1173, November.
    9. Marta Gómez-Puig & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2015. "On the bi-directional causal relationship between public debt and economic growth in EMU countries," Working Papers 15-06, Asociación Española de Economía y Finanzas Internacionales.
    10. Bruce E. Hansen, 2000. "Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(3), pages 575-604, May.
    11. Spilioti, Stella & Vamvoukas, George, 2015. "The impact of government debt on economic growth: An empirical investigation of the Greek market," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 34-40.
    12. Lakshmanan L & R Kausaliya, 2015. "Public Debt Management in India and Related Issues," Working Papers id:7255, eSocialSciences.
    13. Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
    14. T.K. Jayaraman & Chee-Keong Choong, 2006. "Public Debt And Economic Growth In The South Pacific Islands: A Case Study Of Fiji," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 31(2), pages 107-121, December.
    15. Cristina Arellano & Andrew Atkeson & Mark Wright, 2016. "External and Public Debt Crises," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 30(1), pages 191-244.
    16. Debi Prasad Bal & Badri Narayan Rath, 2014. "Public debt and economic growth in India: A reassessment," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 292-300.
    17. Gregory, Allan W & Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime and Trend Shifts," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(3), pages 555-560, August.
    18. Puente-Ajovín, Miguel & Sanso-Navarro, Marcos, 2015. "Granger causality between debt and growth: Evidence from OECD countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 66-77.
    19. Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2015. "The causal relationship between debt and growth in EMU countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 974-989.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Campos, Eduardo Lima & Cysne, Rubens Penha, 2021. "Estimating debt limits for emerging countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 836-855.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. De Vita, Glauco & Trachanas, Emmanouil & Luo, Yun, 2018. "Revisiting the bi-directional causality between debt and growth: Evidence from linear and nonlinear tests," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 55-74.
    2. Kummer-Noormamode, Sabina, 2018. "The Relationship between Public Debt and Economic Growth: Nonlinearity and Country-Specificity," MPRA Paper 98075, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Lawal Isola Adedoyin & Bibire Mabel Babalola & Adegbola O. Otekunri & Lawal Isola Adedoyin, 2016. "External Debt and Economic Growth: Evidence from Nigeria," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 12(6), pages 179-194, DECEMBER.
    4. N. Mhlaba & A. Phiri, 2019. "Is public debt harmful towards economic growth? New evidence from South Africa," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 1603653-160, January.
    5. Saungweme, Talknice & Odhiambo, Nicholas M., 2021. "Sovereign Debt and Economic Growth Nexus in Zimbabwe: A Dynamic Multivariate Causality Test," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 74(2), pages 173-196.
    6. Saungweme, Talknice & Odhiambo, Nicholas M, 2019. "Sovereign debt and economic growth in Zimbabwe: Amultivariate causal linkage," Working Papers 25680, University of South Africa, Department of Economics.
    7. Vicente Esteve & Cecilio Tamarit, 2018. "Public debt and economic growth in Spain, 1851–2013," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 12(2), pages 219-249, May.
    8. Mohammed Daher Alshammary & Zulkefly Abdul Karim & Norlin Khalid & Riayati Ahmad, 2020. "Debt-Growth Nexus in the MENA Region: Evidence from a Panel Threshold Analysis," Economies, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-12, November.
    9. Jan Jacobs & Kazuo Ogawa & Elmer Sterken & Ichiro Tokutsu, 2020. "Public Debt, Economic Growth and the Real Interest Rate: A Panel VAR Approach to EU and OECD Countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(12), pages 1377-1394, March.
    10. Guerini, Mattia & Moneta, Alessio & Napoletano, Mauro & Roventini, Andrea, 2020. "The Janus-Faced Nature Of Debt: Results From A Data-Driven Cointegrated Svar Approach," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(1), pages 24-54, January.
    11. Bitar, Nicholas & Chakrabarti, Avik & Zeaiter, Hussein, 2018. "Were Reinhart and Rogoff right?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 614-620.
    12. Markus Ahlborn & Rainer Schweickert, 2018. "Public debt and economic growth – economic systems matter," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 373-403, April.
    13. Lau, Evan & Moll de Alba, Jaime & Liew, Kim-Hing, 2022. "Debt and economic growth in Asian developing countries," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 599-612.
    14. Jos Mauricio Gil Le n & John William Rosso Murillo & Edgar Alonso Ramirez Hern ndez, 2019. "Public Debt and Stability in Economic Growth: Evidence for Latin America," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 9(4), pages 137-147.
    15. Ugo Panizza & Andrea F. Presbitero, 2013. "Public Debt and Economic Growth in Advanced Economies: A Survey," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 149(II), pages 175-204, June.
    16. Rubo Zhao & Yixiang Tian & Ao Lei & Francis Boadu & Ze Ren, 2019. "The Effect of Local Government Debt on Regional Economic Growth in China: A Nonlinear Relationship Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-22, May.
    17. Carsten Colombier & Christian Breuer, 2020. "Debt and growth: historical evidence," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(3), pages 2594-2609.
    18. Ehigiamusoe, Kizito Uyi & Lean, Hooi Hooi, 2020. "The role of deficit and debt in financing growth in West Africa," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 216-234.
    19. Panagiotis Pegkas, 2018. "The Effect of Government Debt and Other Determinants on Economic Growth: The Greek Experience," Economies, MDPI, vol. 6(1), pages 1-19, February.
    20. Guerini, Mattia & Moneta, Alessio & Napoletano, Mauro & Roventini, Andrea, 2020. "The Janus-Faced Nature Of Debt: Results From A Data-Driven Cointegrated Svar Approach," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(1), pages 24-54, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Public debt; Economic growth; fiscal policy; Threshold analysis; Causality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sek:iacpro:5306868. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klara Cermakova (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://iises.net/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.