IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/dug/actaec/y2016i6p179-194.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

External Debt and Economic Growth: Evidence from Nigeria

Author

Listed:
  • Lawal Isola Adedoyin

    (Landmark University)

  • Bibire Mabel Babalola

    (Landmark University)

  • Adegbola O. Otekunri

    (Landmark University)

  • Lawal Isola Adedoyin

    (University of Ilorin)

Abstract

The study examined the impact of external debt on economic growth in Nigeria for the period 1981-2014 based on annual data sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin (various issues) and abstract of National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The researcher examined the existence of Co-integration among the underlying variables using Auto-regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model after conducting preliminary statistical test to ascertain the normality of the variables as well as stationary of the data set using descriptive and unit root tests. The result of the ARDL test shows that a significant relationship exists between external debt and economic growth both at the long and short run. The study also examined the causality among the variables using Granger causality test and observed that no causality exist among the variables. The study therefore recommends that government should ensure that loans obtained are used to finance profitable projects that would generate reasonable amount of revenue to service the debts and also adequate record of debt payment obligations should be kept and debt should not be allowed to exceed a maximum limit in order to prevent debt overhang.

Suggested Citation

  • Lawal Isola Adedoyin & Bibire Mabel Babalola & Adegbola O. Otekunri & Lawal Isola Adedoyin, 2016. "External Debt and Economic Growth: Evidence from Nigeria," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 12(6), pages 179-194, DECEMBER.
    • Handle: RePEc:dug:actaec:y:2016:i:6:p:179-194
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://journals.univ-danubius.ro/index.php/oeconomica/article/view/3655/3731
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Emanuele Baldacci & Sanjeev Gupta & Carlos Mulas-Granados, 2015. "Debt Reduction, Fiscal Adjustment, and Growth in Credit-Constrained Economies," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 71-97, May.
    2. Marashdeh, Hazem, 2005. "Stock Market Integration in the MENA Region: An Application of the ARDL Bounds Testing Approach," Economics Working Papers wp05-27, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    3. Ouyang, Alice Y. & Rajan, Ramkishen S., 2014. "What determines external debt tipping points?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 215-225.
    4. Panizza, Ugo & Presbitero, Andrea F., 2014. "Public debt and economic growth: Is there a causal effect?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 21-41.
    5. Qayyum, Unbreen & Din, Musleh-ud & Haider, Adnan, 2014. "Foreign aid, external debt and governance," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 41-52.
    6. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    7. Faraji Kasidi & A. Makame Said, 2013. "Impact of External Debt on Economic Growth: A Case Study of Tanzania," Advances in Management and Applied Economics, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 3(4), pages 1-6.
    8. Doğan, İbrahim & Bilgili, Faik, 2014. "The non-linear impact of high and growing government external debt on economic growth: A Markov Regime-switching approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 213-220.
    9. Ozturk, Ilhan & Acaravci, Ali, 2010. "The causal relationship between energy consumption and GDP in Albania, Bulgaria, Hungary and Romania: Evidence from ARDL bound testing approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(6), pages 1938-1943, June.
    10. Marta Gómez-Puig & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2015. "On the bi-directional causal relationship between public debt and economic growth in EMU countries," Working Papers 15-06, Asociación Española de Economía y Finanzas Internacionales.
    11. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    12. Debi Prasad Bal & Badri Narayan Rath, 2014. "Public debt and economic growth in India: A reassessment," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 292-300.
    13. Spilioti, Stella & Vamvoukas, George, 2015. "The impact of government debt on economic growth: An empirical investigation of the Greek market," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 34-40.
    14. Jayaraman, T.K. & Lau, Evan, 2009. "Does external debt lead to economic growth in Pacific island countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 272-288.
    15. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    16. Gregory, Allan W & Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime and Trend Shifts," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(3), pages 555-560, August.
    17. Bekhet, Hussain Ali & Matar, Ali, 2013. "Co-integration and causality analysis between stock market prices and their determinates in Jordan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 508-514.
    18. Ramzan, Muhammad & Ahmad, Eatzaz, 2014. "External debt growth nexus: Role of macroeconomic polices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 204-210.
    19. Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
    20. Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Rother, Philipp, 2012. "The impact of high government debt on economic growth and its channels: An empirical investigation for the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(7), pages 1392-1405.
    21. repec:asi:ajoerj:2013:p:363-380 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Mohammad Morshedur RAHMAN & Mohammad Abul BASHAR & Suman DEY, 2012. "External Debt And Gross Domestic Product In Bangladesh: A Co-Integration Analysis," Management Research and Practice, Research Centre in Public Administration and Public Services, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 4(4), pages 28-36, December.
    23. Nicholas Odhiambo, 2010. "Finance-investment-growth nexus in South Africa: an ARDL-bounds testing procedure," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 205-219, August.
    24. Osinubi, T.S. & Olaleru, O.E., 2006. "Budget Deficits, External Debt And Economic Growth In Nigeria," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 6(3).
    25. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    26. Kristin J. Forbes, 2000. "A Reassessment of the Relationship between Inequality and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 869-887, September.
    27. Emanuele Baldacci & Sanjeev Gupta & Carlos Mulas-Granados, 2015. "Debt reduction, fiscal adjustment, and growth in credit-constrained economies," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 18, pages 71-98, May.
    28. Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2015. "The causal relationship between debt and growth in EMU countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 974-989.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Omodero Cordelia Onyinyechi, 2019. "External Debt Financing and Public Capital Investment in Nigeria: A Critical Evaluation," Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 33(1), pages 111-126, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Saungweme Talknice & Odhiambo Nicholas M., 2020. "Causality Between Public Debt, Public Debt Service and Economic Growth in an Emerging Economy," Studia Universitatis Babeș-Bolyai Oeconomica, Sciendo, vol. 65(1), pages 1-19, April.
    2. Qaiser Munir & Sook Ching Kok & Winnie Abdulnasir, 2016. "Public debt sustainability and economic growth in Malaysia: Threshold and causality analysis," Proceedings of International Academic Conferences 5306868, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    3. Brittle, Shane, 2009. "Ricardian Equivalence and the Efficacy of Fiscal Policy in Australia," Economics Working Papers wp09-10, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    4. Kakali Kanjilal & Sajal Ghosh, 2018. "Revisiting income and price elasticity of gasoline demand in India: new evidence from cointegration tests," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 1869-1888, December.
    5. Kanjilal, Kakali & Ghosh, Sajal, 2014. "Income and price elasticity of gold import demand in India: Empirical evidence from threshold and ARDL bounds test cointegration," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 135-142.
    6. Saungweme, Talknice & Odhiambo, Nicholas M, 2019. "Causality between public debt, public debt service and economic growth: Evidence from South Africa," Working Papers 25745, University of South Africa, Department of Economics.
    7. Chen, George S. & Yao, Yao & Malizard, Julien, 2017. "Does foreign direct investment crowd in or crowd out private domestic investment in China? The effect of entry mode," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 409-419.
    8. Kummer-Noormamode, Sabina, 2018. "The Relationship between Public Debt and Economic Growth: Nonlinearity and Country-Specificity," MPRA Paper 98075, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Abdelouahab MAAROUF & Omar AHMED, 2021. "Djibouti'S External Public Debt: Sustainability And Impact On Economic Growth [La Dette Publique Extérieure De Djibouti : Soutenabilité Et Impact Sur La Croissance Économique]," Post-Print halshs-03280083, HAL.
    10. Maitra, Biswajit, 2019. "Macroeconomic impact of public debt and foreign aid in Sri Lanka," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 372-394.
    11. Hussain Ali Bekhet & Raed Walid Al-Smadi, 2016. "The dynamic causality between FDI inflow and its determinants in Jordan," International Journal of Economics and Business Research, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 11(1), pages 26-47.
    12. Yi-Bin Chiu & Chien-Chiang Lee, 2017. "On The Impact Of Public Debt On Economic Growth: Does Country Risk Matter?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 35(4), pages 751-766, October.
    13. Nermin Yasar, 2021. "The Causal Relationship Between Foreign Debt and Economic Growth: Evidence from Commonwealth Independent States," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 56(4), pages 415-429, November.
    14. Kakali Kanjilal, 2014. "Rational expectation hypothesis: empirical evidence from government debt market in India," International Journal of Indian Culture and Business Management, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 9(3), pages 353-370.
    15. Sohag, Kazi & Begum, Rawshan Ara & Abdullah, Sharifah Mastura Syed & Jaafar, Mokhtar, 2015. "Dynamics of energy use, technological innovation, economic growth and trade openness in Malaysia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 90(P2), pages 1497-1507.
    16. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Song, Malin & Ahmad, Shabbir & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2022. "Does economic growth stimulate energy consumption? The role of human capital and R&D expenditures in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    17. Mylonidis, Nikolaos & Kollias, Christos, 2010. "Dynamic European stock market convergence: Evidence from rolling cointegration analysis in the first euro-decade," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 2056-2064, September.
    18. Bashiri Behmiri, Niaz & Pires Manso, José R., 2012. "Does Portuguese economy support crude oil conservation hypothesis?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 628-634.
    19. Kanjilal, Kakali & Ghosh, Sajal, 2013. "Environmental Kuznet’s curve for India: Evidence from tests for cointegration with unknown structuralbreaks," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 509-515.
    20. Dakpogan, Arnaud & Smit, Eon, 2018. "The effect of electricity losses on GDP in Benin," MPRA Paper 89545, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dug:actaec:y:2016:i:6:p:179-194. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Daniela Robu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fedanro.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.