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Economic Feasibility, General Economic Impact and Implications of a Free Trade Agreement Between the European Union and Armenia

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Author Info

  • David Dyker
  • Michael Emerson
  • Michael Gasiorek
  • Peter Holmes
  • Malgorzata Jakubiak
  • Andre Jungmittag
  • Vicki Korchagin
  • Alina Kudina
  • Evgeny Polyakov
  • Andrei Roudoi
  • Gevorg Torosyan

Abstract

This study of the feasibility, costs and benefits of a free trade agreement between the EU and Armenia was conducted from July 2007 to April 2008 under contract with the European Commission. The first meeting in Brussels in September 2007 with Staff members of Directorates-General for Trade, External Relations, Economic and Financial Affairs, Internal Market and Services, Competition, Enterprise and Industry proved indispensable in our work on this report. During mission to Yerevan in October 2007 the consultations were held with a number of ministries, research institutes and business organizations. We greatly benefited from consultations with the representatives of the Ministry of Energy, Customs State Committee, Ministry of Trade and Economic Development, Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Union of Manufacturers and Businessmen (Employers) of Armenia, National Institute of Standards, Wine Producers Union, Ministry of Finance and Economy AEPLAC Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Armenian Development Agency UNDP, IMF and the World Bank. The European Commission Delegation to Armenia provided us with extensive information, consultation on key policy issues and organizational support, for chich we are very grateful. Several authors contributed to this study. David Dyker is the author of the introductory section (chapter 2) and the analysis of services sectors (chapter 7). Michael Emerson is the author of section on regional integration scenarios (chapter 3) and he also provided very valuable comments on all chapters in this study. Sveta Taran, Peter Holmes and Michael Gasiorek are the authors of chapter 4 employing the Sussex Framework to study the impact of FTA. Michael Gasiorek and Peter Holmes also provided valuable comments on the CGE modelling section. Evgeny Polyakov, Andrei Roudoi as well as Gevorg Torosyan contributed to the chapter on the institutional and regulatory harmonization (chapter 5). The team from the Global Insight including Andre Jungmittag, Vicki Korchagin, Evgeny Polyakov and Andrei Roudoi supervised the implementation of the survey and completed the analysis of the survey results (chapter 6). Also the same team from Global Insight contributed chapter 10 on sensitive sectors. The implementation of the survey of NTBs was conducted by AVAG Solutions under the supervision of Vardan Baghdasaryan and Melik Gasparyan. The analysis of FDI flows and their likely trends following an FTA was prepared by Malgorzata Jakubiak, while the estimation of the potential FDI flows was completed by Alina Kudina (section 8.4). The CGE analysis (chapter 9) was prepared by Maryla Maliszewska, who also acted as the project manager and the editor of the study. Finally, conclusions are a collective work of all the authors. Sierz Naurodski and Elena Kozarzewska provided an excellent administrative support. I would like to take his opportunity to thank them all for their cooperation, valuable contributions and comments.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research in its series CASE Network Reports with number 0080.

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Length: 263 Pages
Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:sec:cnrepo:0080

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Related research

Keywords: European Neighborhood Policy; free trade agreement; institutional harmonization; EU; Armenia;

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References

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  1. Carstensen, Kai & Toubal, Farid, 2004. "Foreign direct investment in Central and Eastern European countries: A dynamic panel analysis," Munich Reprints in Economics 19965, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  2. Kravis, Irving B. & Lipsey, Robert E., 1982. "The location of overseas production and production for export by U.S. multinational firms," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3-4), pages 201-223, May.
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  8. Steven Globerman & Daniel M Shapiro, 1999. "The Impact of Government Policies on Foreign Direct Investment: The Canadian Experience," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 30(3), pages 513-532, September.
  9. Johan F. M. Swinnen & Miet Maertens, 2007. "Globalization, privatization, and vertical coordination in food value chains in developing and transition countries," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 37(s1), pages 89-102, December.
  10. Lev Freinkman & Evgeny Polyakov & Carolina Revenco, 2004. "Trade Performance and Regional Integration of the CIS Countries," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 14933, October.
  11. Beata K. Smarzynska, 2003. "Does Foreign Direct Investment Increase the Productivity of Domestic Firms? In Search of Spillovers through Backward Linkages," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 548, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
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