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Inference in GARCH when some coefficients are equal to zero

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Christian Francq (GREMARS University Lille 3)
Jean-Michel Zakoïan (GREMARS University Lille 3 and CREST)

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Abstract

The asymptotic distribution of the QML estimator for GARCH processes, with coefficients possibly equal to zero, is established. This distribution is the projection of a normal vector distribution onto a convex cone. The results are derived under mild conditions which, for important subclasses, coincide with those made in the recent literature when the coefficients are positive. The QML estimator is shown to converge to its asymptotic distribution locally uniformly. Using these results, we consider the problem of testing that one or several GARCH coefficients are null. The null distribution and the local asymptotic powers of the Wald, score and quasi-likelihood ratio tests are derived. Asymptotic optimality issues are addressed. A set of numerical experiments illustrates the practical relevance of our theoretical results

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Paper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 with number 64.

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Date of creation: 04 Jul 2006
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Handle: RePEc:sce:scecfa:64

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Estimation
C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Hypothesis Testing
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions

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  3. Lee, John H H & King, Maxwell L, 1993. "A Locally Most Mean Powerful Based Score Test for ARCH and GARCH Regression Disturbances," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(1), pages 17-27, January.
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  5. Peter Hall & Qiwei Yao, 2003. "Inference in Arch and Garch Models with Heavy--Tailed Errors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 285-317, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Claudia Klüppelberg & Ross A. Maller & Mark van de Vyver & Derick Wee, 2002. "Testing for reduction to random walk in autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 5(2), pages 387-416, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Lee, John H. H., 1991. "A Lagrange multiplier test for GARCH models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 265-271, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Andrews, Donald W K, 2001. "Testing When a Parameter Is on the Boundary of the Maintained Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(3), pages 683-734, May.
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  9. Nelson, Daniel B & Cao, Charles Q, 1992. "Inequality Constraints in the Univariate GARCH Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(2), pages 229-35, April.
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  12. Drost, Feike C. & Klaassen, Chris A. J., 1997. "Efficient estimation in semiparametric GARCH models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 193-221, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. HAFNER, Christian M. & PREMINGER, Arie, 2006. "Asymptotic theory for a factor GARCH model," CORE Discussion Papers 2006071, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE). [Downloadable!]
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