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Caution in Macroeconomic Policy: Uncertainty and the Relative Intensity of Policy

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Author Info
P. Ruben Mercado () (Bryn Mawr College)
David Kendrick () (University of Texas)

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Abstract

Two lines of literature show that increased uncertainty results in decreased vigor of the control variable in the first time period. The first line uses static models, the second dynamic. Here, the dynamic line is extended from one-state, one-control models to ones with two control variables. We confirm the Johansen result from the static line that, in this case, one control is used less intensely and the other more intensely when current uncertainty is increased. We then extend this result to models with zero weights on the controls, giving a linear complementarity outcome. Analyses from both lines of the literature effectively involve single-period results, since even the dynamic line has focused on the effects of current uncertainty. Here we follow a suggestion from Craine to extend the results to a multiperiod framework. Using the Riccati equations, we study the effects of increased uncertainty in a future time period on the use of controls in the first time period. We find, contrary to the single-period results, that the outcomes reveal that both control variables (or at least one, depending of the relative magnitude of first-period control parameter weighted variances) are used more, rather than less, intensely.

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Paper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 with number 1343.

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Date of creation: 01 Mar 1999
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Handle: RePEc:sce:scecf9:1343

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Pohjola, Matti T., 1981. "Uncertainty and the vigour of policy Some implications of quadratic preferences," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 299-305, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Craine, Roger, 1979. "Optimal monetary policy with uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 59-83, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Turnovsky, Stephen J, 1975. "Optimal Choice of Monetary Instrument in a Linear Economic Model with Stochastic Coefficients," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 7(1), pages 51-80, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Hans M. Amman & David A. Kendrick, 1996. "The DUALI/DUALPC Software for Optimal Control Models: Introduction," Economics, University of Texas at Austin 9602, Center for Applied Research in Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Shupp, Franklin R., 1976. "Uncertainty and optimal stabilization policy," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 243-253, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Chow, Gregory C, 1973. "Effect of Uncertainty on Optimal Control Policies," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 14(3), pages 632-45, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Hans M. Amman & David A. Kendrick, 1997. "Should Macroeconomic Policy Makers Consider Parameter Covariances?," Economics, University of Texas at Austin 9701, Center for Applied Research in Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  1. P. Mercado & David Kendrick, 2006. "Parameter Uncertainty and Policy Intensity: Some Extensions and Suggestions for Further Work," Computational Economics, Springer, vol. 27(4), pages 483-496, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Ric D. Herbert and Rod D. Bell, 2001. "Constrained Optimal Control Under Limited Knowledge," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 14, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Fidel Gonzalez & Arnulfo Rodriguez, 2004. "Robust Control: A Note on the Response of the Control to Changes in the “Free” Parameter Conditional on the Character of Nature," Computational Economics, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 223-238, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Arnulfo Rodriguez, 2004. "Robust Control: A Note on the Timing of Model Uncertainty," Computational Economics, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 209-221, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Fidel Gonzalez, 2008. "Optimal Policy Response with Control Parameter and Intercept Covariance," Computational Economics, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 1-20, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. P. Ruben Mercado, 2001. "The Timing of Uncertainty and The Intensity of Policy," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 55, Society for Computational Economics.
  7. André P. Calmon & Thomas Vallée & João B. R. Do Val, 2009. "Monetary policy as a source of uncertainty," Working Papers hal-00422454_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
  8. Arnulfo Rodriguez, 2004. "Robust Control: A Note on the Timing of Model Uncertainty," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 147, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
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