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Return-based Style Analysis with Time-varying Exposures

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  • Laurens Swinkels, Pieter Jelle VanDerSluis

Abstract

This paper focuses on the estimation of mutual fund styles by return-based style analysis. Usually, the investment style is assumed to be either constant through time, or time variation is implicitly accounted for by using rolling regressions. The former assumption is often contradicted by data analysis, and the latter is inefficient due to its ad hoc chosen window size. We propose to use the Kalman filter to explicitly model time-varying exposures of mutual funds. This leads to a testable model and more efficient use of the data, which reduces the influence of spurious correlation between mutual fund returns and style indices.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 with number 125.

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Date of creation: 01 Apr 2001
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Handle: RePEc:sce:scecf1:125

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Keywords: Kalman Filter; Mutual Funds; Style Analysis;

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References

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  1. Stephen Brown & William Goetzmann, 2001. "Hedge Funds With Style," Yale School of Management Working Papers, Yale School of Management ysm21, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Apr 2008.
  2. Erik R. Sirri & Peter Tufano, 1998. "Costly Search and Mutual Fund Flows," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, American Finance Association, vol. 53(5), pages 1589-1622, October.
  3. Heston, Steven L. & Rouwenhorst, K. Geert, 1994. "Does industrial structure explain the benefits of international diversification?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 3-27, August.
  4. Horst, J.R. ter & Nijman, T.E. & Roon, F.A. de, 2004. "Evaluating style analysis," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-123840, Tilburg University.
  5. French, Kenneth R & Poterba, James M, 1991. "Investor Diversification and International Equity Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(2), pages 222-26, May.
  6. Louis K.C. Chan & Hsiu-Lang Chen & Josef Lakonishok, 1999. "On Mutual Fund Investment Styles," NBER Working Papers 7215, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Fisher, Lawrence & Kamin, Jules H., 1985. "Forecasting Systematic Risk: Estimates of “Raw” Beta that Take Account of the Tendency of Beta to Change and the Heteroskedasticity of Residual Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(02), pages 127-149, June.
  8. Huberman, Gur, 2001. "Familiarity Breeds Investment," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(3), pages 659-80.
  9. Tae-Hwan Kim, 2005. "Asymptotic and Bayesian Confidence Intervals for Sharpe-Style Weights," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 3(3), pages 315-343.
  10. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. " On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
  11. Siem Jan Koopman & Neil Shephard & Jurgen A. Doornik, 1999. "Statistical algorithms for models in state space using SsfPack 2.2," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(1), pages 107-160.
  12. Brown, Stephen J. & Goetzmann, William N., 1997. "Mutual fund styles," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 373-399, March.
  13. Lakonishok, Josef, et al, 1991. "Window Dressing by Pension Fund Managers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(2), pages 227-31, May.
  14. Kim, Moon & Shukla, Ravi & Tomas, Michael, 2000. "Mutual fund objective misclassification," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 309-323.
  15. Ross, Stephen A., 1976. "The arbitrage theory of capital asset pricing," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 341-360, December.
  16. Durbin, James & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2001. "Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, Oxford University Press, number 9780198523543, October.
  17. Alexander, Gordon J. & Benson, P. George & Eger, Carol E., 1982. "Timing Decisions and the Behavior of Mutual Fund Systematic Risk," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(04), pages 579-602, November.
  18. de Roon, F.A. & Nijman, T.E. & Werker, B.J.M., 2000. "Evaluating Style Analysis," ERIM Report Series Research in Management, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasm ERS-2000-11-F&A, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Bohl, Martin T. & Kaufmann, Philipp & Stephan, Patrick M., 2013. "From hero to zero: Evidence of performance reversal and speculative bubbles in German renewable energy stocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 40-51.
  2. Martin Bohl & Philipp Kaufmann & Patrick Stephan, 2012. "From Hero to Zero: Evidence of Performance Reversal and Speculative Bubbles in German Renewable Energy Stocks," CQE Working Papers 2412, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
  3. Darolles, Serge & Vaissié, Mathieu, 2012. "The alpha and omega of fund of hedge fund added value," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1067-1078.
  4. Holmes, Kathryn A. & Faff, Robert, 2008. "Estimating the performance attributes of Australian multi-sector managed funds within a dynamic Kalman filter framework," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 998-1011, December.

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