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Prospect Theory And Self-Fulfilling Market Sentiments

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Listed:
  • Giuseppe Ciccarone
  • Francesco Giuli
  • Enrico Marchetti

Abstract

In this paper we present a novel channel through which the volatility of the monetary/financial sector affects the instability of the real macroeconomic variables originated by self-fulfilling market sentiments. To this aim, we insert some elements of Prospect Theory in the preferences of agents living in an overlapping generations economy where consumers’ heterogeneity and firms’ imperfect information on the level of aggregate demand allow market sentiments to affect the equilibrium path of the economy. In this environment, greater heterogeneity in the household’s narrow framing parameter favour the emergence of self-fulfilling equilibria by exacerbating the coordination problem generated by a pair-wise matching process in the labor market. Furthermore, higher volatility of the money market, by increasing the effect of Prospect Theory on households’ choices, makes the signal upon which firms form their demand schedules noisier; this, in its turn, generates greater variability in market sentiments and hence in real economic activity.

Suggested Citation

  • Giuseppe Ciccarone & Francesco Giuli & Enrico Marchetti, 2017. "Prospect Theory And Self-Fulfilling Market Sentiments," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' 0216, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.
    • Handle: RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0216
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jess Benhabib & Pengfei Wang & Yi Wen, 2017. "Uncertainty and Sentiment-Driven Equilibria," Studies in Economic Theory, in: Kazuo Nishimura & Alain Venditti & Nicholas C. Yannelis (ed.), Sunspots and Non-Linear Dynamics, chapter 0, pages 281-304, Springer.
    2. Barberis, Nicholas & Huang, Ming, 2009. "Preferences with frames: A new utility specification that allows for the framing of risks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(8), pages 1555-1576, August.
    3. Jess Benhabib & Pengfei Wang & Yi Wen, 2015. "Sentiments and Aggregate Demand Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 83, pages 549-585, March.
    4. Scott Brave & R. Andrew Butters, 2011. "Monitoring financial stability: a financial conditions index approach," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 35(Q I), pages 22-43.
    5. Nicholas Barberis & Ming Huang & Tano Santos, 2001. "Prospect Theory and Asset Prices," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 116(1), pages 1-53.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Prospect theory; Self-fulfilling equilibria; Sentiments; Behavioral macroeconomics.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E03 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Macroeconomics
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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