IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ris/kiepwp/2013_005.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Nonlinear Effects of Government Debt on Private Consumption in OECD Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Cho , Dooyeon

    (Sungkyunkwan University)

  • Rhee , Dong-Eun

    (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy)

Abstract

This paper investigates nonlinear effects of government debt on private consumption in 16 OECD countries. The estimated consumption function shows smooth regime switching depending on the debt-to-GDP ratio, and the threshold level of regime switching is found to be the ratio of 83.7 percent. The results reveal that a higher level of government debt crowds out private consumption to a greater extent, and that the degree of the crowding out effect has deteriorated since the global financial crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Cho , Dooyeon & Rhee , Dong-Eun, 2013. "Nonlinear Effects of Government Debt on Private Consumption in OECD Countries," Working Papers 13-5, Korea Institute for International Economic Policy.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:kiepwp:2013_005
    DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2366184
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2366184
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.2139/ssrn.2366184?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Feldstein, Martin & Elmendorf, Douglas W, 1990. "Government Debt, Government Spending, and Private Sector Behavior Revisited: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 589-599, June.
    2. Barro, Robert J, 1974. "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(6), pages 1095-1117, Nov.-Dec..
    3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 573-578, May.
    4. Ludwig Alexander & Sløk Torsten, 2004. "The Relationship between Stock Prices, House Prices and Consumption in OECD Countries," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-28, March.
    5. Feldstein, Martin, 1982. "Government deficits and aggregate demand," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 1-20.
    6. Ilzetzki, Ethan & Mendoza, Enrique G. & Végh, Carlos A., 2013. "How big (small?) are fiscal multipliers?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 239-254.
    7. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    8. Peter Pedroni, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 653-670, November.
    9. Choi, In, 2001. "Unit root tests for panel data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 249-272, April.
    10. Ludwig, Alexander & Sløk, Torsten, 2004. "The relationship between stock prices, house prices and consumption in OECD," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 04-12, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
    11. Hansen, Bruce E., 1999. "Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing, and inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 345-368, December.
    12. Giancarlo Corsetti & André Meier & Gernot J. Müller, 2012. "What determines government spending multipliers? [Mafia and public spending: Evidence of the fiscal multiplier from a quasi-experiment’, mimeo]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 27(72), pages 521-565.
    13. Kormendi, Roger C & Meguire, Philip, 1990. "Government Debt, Government Spending, and Private Sector Behavior: Reply and Update," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 604-617, June.
    14. Pedroni, Peter, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 653-670, Special I.
    15. Modigliani, Franco & Sterling, Arlie G, 1990. "Government Debt, Government Spending, and Private Sector Behavior: A Further Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 600-603, June.
    16. Berben, Robert-Paul & Brosens, Teunis, 2007. "The impact of government debt on private consumption in OECD countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 220-225, February.
    17. Kormendi, Roger C, 1983. "Government Debt, Government Spending, and Private Sector Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(5), pages 994-1010, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cho, Dooyeon & Lee, Kyung-woo, 2022. "Population aging and fiscal sustainability: Nonlinear evidence from Europe," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    2. Pinar Deniz & Thanasis Stengos, 2023. "Revisiting the Determinants of Consumption: A Bayesian Model Averaging Approach," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-13, March.
    3. Dooyeon Cho & Dong-Eun Rhee, 2017. "Non-linear adjustments on the excess sensitivity of consumption with liquidity constraints," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(41), pages 4180-4187, September.
    4. Bernardo Leyva-Uribe & Jose E. Gomez-Gonzalez & Oscar M. Valencia-Arana & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas, 2016. "Efectos del Quantitative Easing sobre los retornos accionarios en mercados emergentes," Borradores de Economia 929, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cho, Dooyeon & Rhee, Dong-Eun, 2013. "Nonlinear effects of government debt on private consumption: Evidence from OECD countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 121(3), pages 504-507.
    2. Elmendorf, Douglas W. & Gregory Mankiw, N., 1999. "Government debt," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 25, pages 1615-1669, Elsevier.
    3. Gogas, Periklis & Plakandaras, Vasilios & Papadimitriou, Theophilos, 2014. "Public debt and private consumption in OECD countries," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 11(C), pages 1-7.
    4. Alessio Ciarlone, 2019. "The relationship between financial development and growth: the case of emerging Europe," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 521, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    5. Brunila, Anne, 1997. "Current income and private consumption : Saving decisions : Testing the finite horizon model," Research Discussion Papers 6/1997, Bank of Finland.
    6. repec:zbw:bofrdp:1997_006 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Koumparoulis, Dimitrios, 2006. "Ευρωπαϊκή Δημοσιονομική Πολιτική Και Οικονομική Μεγέθυνση: Η Νεοκλασική Οικονομική Θεωρία Για Την Περίπτωση Της Ελλάδας [European Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth: The Neoclassical Economic Theory," MPRA Paper 44310, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Krishanu Pradhan, 2016. "Ricardian Approach to Fiscal Sustainability in India," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 10(4), pages 499-529, November.
    9. Waqas, Muhamad & Awan, Masood Sarwar & Aslam, Muhammad Amir, 2011. "We are living on the cost of our children," MPRA Paper 32044, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Časni Anita Čeh, 2016. "Is there a housing wealth effect in European countries?," Croatian Review of Economic, Business and Social Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 2(2), pages 30-40, December.
    11. Brunila, Anne, 1997. "Current income and private consumption: Saving decisions: Testing the finite horizon model," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 6/1997, Bank of Finland.
    12. Ahec Šonje, Amina & Čeh Časni, Anita & Vizek, Maruška, 2014. "The effect of housing and stock market wealth on consumption in emerging and developed countries," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 433-450.
    13. Hrushikesh Mallick, 2008. "Do remittances impact the economy? Some empirical evidences from a developing economy," Centre for Development Studies, Trivendrum Working Papers 407, Centre for Development Studies, Trivendrum, India.
    14. Olivier Damette & Mathilde Maurel & Michael A. Stemmer, 2016. "What does it take to grow out of recession? An error-correction approach towards growth convergence of European and transition countries," Post-Print halshs-01318131, HAL.
    15. Dawood, Taufiq Carnegie & Francois, John Nana, 2018. "Substitution between private and government consumption in African economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 129-139.
    16. Cardi, Olivier & Restout, Romain, 2023. "Sectoral fiscal multipliers and technology in open economy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    17. Basil Dalamagas, 1994. "Testing the Debt-Illusion Hypothesis," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 45(4), pages 1079-1094.
    18. Christian Dreger & Hans-Eggert Reimers, 2012. "The long run relationship between private consumption and wealth: common and idiosyncratic effects," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 11(1), pages 21-34, April.
    19. Gianluigi Giorgioni & Ken Holden, 2003. "Ricardian equivalence, expansionary fiscal contraction and the stock market: a VECM approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(12), pages 1435-1443.
    20. Paulo André Camuri & Frederico G. Jayme Jr. & Ana Maria Hermeto, 2015. "Fiscal consolidation in developed and emerging economies [Fiscal consolidation in developed and emerging economies]," Nova Economia, Economics Department, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (Brazil), vol. 25(spe), pages 835-861, December.
    21. Vincent Labhard & Gabriel Sterne & Chris Young, 2005. "Wealth and consumption: an assessment of the international evidence," Bank of England working papers 275, Bank of England.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Consumption; Government Debt; Nonlinearity; Panel Smooth Transition Regression Model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:kiepwp:2013_005. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Juwon Seo (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/kieppkr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.