Investigating the Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on Transpacific Rebalancing
AbstractThis paper investigates the role that exchange rate changes can play in rebalancing transpacific trade. It presents evidence from a gravity model indicating that the exports from the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to the United States (US) are a key outlier in the global economy and that imbalances between the PRC and the US have remained large during the financial crisis that began in September 2008. It then reports that an appreciation of the yuan against the dollar would be required to rebalance bilateral trade between the US and the PRC. In the case of multilateral trade between the US and the rest of the world, on the other hand, the evidence indicates that a depreciation of the dollar would not substantially reduce the US global trade deficit. In the case of Asia’s exports, results presented here and elsewhere indicate that: (i) sophisticated exports produced within regional production networks depend on exchange rates throughout the region; (ii) labor-intensive exports from developing Asian countries are strongly influenced by each country’s own exchange rate; (iii) developing Asian countries compete extensively with each other in exports to third markets; (iv) a currency appreciation in developing Asia would increase capital and consumption goods imports; and (v) exchange rate volatility deters parts and components trade in Asia. These findings imply that Asia and the rest of the world would benefit if East Asian currencies could appreciate together against external currencies while maintaining relative currency stability within the region.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Asian Development Bank Institute in its series ADBI Working Papers with number 247.
Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: 08 Sep 2010
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Kasumigaseki Building 8F, 3-2-5, Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku,, Tokyo 100-6008, Japan
Fax: (81-3) 3593-5571
Web page: http://www.adbi.org/
More information through EDIRC
transpacific trade; exchange rate rebalancing;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
- F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Koichiro Kamada & Izumi Takagawa, 2005.
"Policy coordination in East Asia and across the Pacific,"
International Economics and Economic Policy,
Springer, vol. 2(4), pages 275-306, December.
- Koichiro Kamada & Izumi Takagawa, 2005. "Policy Coordination in East Asia and across the Pacific," Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series d05-101, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
- THORBECKE, Willem, 2014. "China-U.S. Trade: A global outlier," Discussion papers 14039, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
- Willem Thorbecke & Atsuyuki Kato, 2011.
"The Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on Japanese Consumption Exports,"
Trade Working Papers
23238, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
- Thorbecke, Willem & Kato, Atsuyuki, 2011. "The Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on Japanese Consumption Exports," ADBI Working Papers 298, Asian Development Bank Institute.
- Willem Thorbecke & Atsuyuki Kato, 2011. "The Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on Japanese Consumption Exports," Macroeconomics Working Papers 23238, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
- THORBECKE, Willem, 2012. "The Short- and Long-Run Effects of Exchange Rate Changes on the Japanese Electronics Industry," Discussion papers 12019, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
- Bernhardt, Thomas, 2014. "How promising is South-South trade as a contributor to economic development in Asia and South America? Insights from estimating income elasticities of import demand," MPRA Paper 56413, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Philip Levy, 2011.
"The United States and the PRC : Macroeconomic Imbalances and Economic Diplomacy,"
Macroeconomics Working Papers
23208, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
- Philip Levy, 2011. "The United States and the PRC : Macroeconomic Imbalances and Economic Diplomacy," Governance Working Papers 23208, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
- Levy, Philip, 2011. "The United States and the PRC: Macroeconomic Imbalances and Economic Diplomacy," ADBI Working Papers 328, Asian Development Bank Institute.
- Murad, S. M. Woahid, 2012. "Bilateral Export and Import Demand Functions of Bangladesh: A Cointegration Approach," MPRA Paper 36919, University Library of Munich, Germany.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Robert Hugh Davis).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.