When ENSO Reigns, It Pours: Climate Forecasts in Flood Planning
AbstractRecent scientific and technical advances have increased the potential use of longterm seasonal climate forecasts for improving water resource management. This paper examines the role that forecasts, in particular those based on the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, can play in flood planning in the Pacific Northwest. While strong evidence of an association between ENSO signals and flooding in the region exists, this association is open to more than one interpretation depending on: a) the metric used to test the strength of the association; b) the definition of critical flood events; c) site-specific features of watersheds; and d) the characteristics of flood management institutions. A better understanding and appreciation of such ambiguities, both institutional and statistical, is needed to facilitate the use of climate forecast information for flood planning and response.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Resources For the Future in its series Discussion Papers with number dp-01-56-.
Date of creation: 01 Nov 2001
Date of revision:
Flooding; Climate; ENSO; Water Resources Planning; Water Policy; Water Management;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- Q2 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2006-01-24 (All new papers)
- NEP-ENV-2006-01-24 (Environmental Economics)
- NEP-FOR-2006-01-24 (Forecasting)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- James W. Mjelde & Troy N. Thompson & Clair J. Nixon, 1996. "Government Institutional Effects on the Value of Seasonal Climate Forecasts," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(1), pages 175-188.
- Wernstedt, Kris & Hersh, Robert, 2002. "Flood Planning and Climate Forecasts at the Local Level," Discussion Papers dp-02-27, Resources For the Future.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Webmaster).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.